| Since China has executed the policy of reformation and opening, Chinese economy develops very rapidly. The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has induced agricultural production resources to pour out of agricultural sectors continuously, especially that lot of arable lands have turned into construction lands. At the same time, Chinese population is very great and continues to grow, which will induce that the sum of demand of grain increase ceaselessly. So under the background that Chinese population is great but the arable land per capita is little, and that the economy grows very fast, it is very important to ensure grain supply and demand equilibrium of China and regions, which makes that the pressure of grain yield enhancement increases continuously. China has put a series of grain policy reforms in practice in recent years, so it is very necessary and important for us to reevaluate the equilibrium status and fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand in the new policy environment, which will help us to look for the possible gap of grain supply and demand in time in future, to take appropriate actions to ensure the domestic safety of grain supply, and to enhance income of farmer and improve the food consumption structure of residents. All of which are very important and significant in theory and practice.Based on relatively elaborate analysis of correlative research literatures on Chinese grain forecast of supply and demand and its quantitative research methods etc., firstly, the author constructs regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand to analyze the historical change status of production and demand of three kinds of grain, rice, wheat and maize in three regions and the country from 1992. Then, the author constructs regional Nerlove Supply Reaction Model and AIDS Panel Data Model to empirically analyze how micro factors influence Chinese grain production and demand from the micro angle of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior. From the above study, based on Partial Equilibrium Theory to construct regional Grain Supply and Demand Model (GSDM) and design three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment, the author re-simulates and analyzes the fluctuant trend of supply and demand of three kinds of grain in three regions and the country in future 20 years, to look for possible surplus or gap of future grain supply and demand, and to bring forward relative political measure to realize regional grain equilibrium of supply and demand. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Literature summary. The dissertation relatively detailedly summarizes the main research literatures at home and abroad on projections of supply and demand of Chinese grain and their projection methods, researches of grain producer behavior and their analysis methods, studies of consumer behavior of food consumption in china and their analysis methods.(2) Regional equilibrium analysis of grain supply and demand in China. Mainly through establishing regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand, the dissertation analyzes production, consumption, trade and yearly surplus or gap of rice, wheat, maize and the three kinds of grain in different regions and the country.(3) Research of micro influencing factors of grain production in China. Through constructing Nerlove Supply Reaction Panel Data Models of three kinds of grain in three regions, the author empirically analyzes the influencing problem of micro factors of producer behavior and environment factors, such as prices, production inputs, policy, technology, risk, urbanization, natural calamity and irrigation etc., to look for the effect of micro production factors on regional grain production.(4) Study of micro influencing factors of food demand in China. Mainly through constructing AIDS Panel Data Models of food demand of urban and rural residents in three regions, the author positively analyzes the influencing problem of micro factors of consumer behavior, such as food prices, income, family population, education and so on, to look for the effect of micro demand factors on grain consumption.(5) Analysis of regional fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand in China. Based on equilibrium analysis of grain supply and demand, researches of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior, the author constructs analysis models for regional grain supply and demand, designs three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment, re-simulates and analyzes the fluctuant trend of yield, food consumption, feed consumption, industry consumption, seed consumption and the loss of three kinds of grain from the angle of the country and regions in future 20 years, which is to estimate possible surplus or gap of future grain supply and demand.(6) Depending on the above research results, the dissertation puts forward correlative political enlightenments and suggestions for realization of regional equilibrium of grain supply and demand in China from the angle of that stabilizes and promotes yield of grain production, that reduces the gap of grain supply and demand, and that enhances the rate of grain self-support etc.Compared with the existing similar domestic study, the main progresses in the dissertation are as follows:(1) Progress in theory. Mainly through quantitatively analyzing regional change of grain supply and demand from the micro angle in China, based on which through depending on Partial Equilibrium Theory to construct GSDM model, the dissertation opens out the micro mechanism of and the future trend of regional change of Chinese grain supply and demand, which has broken through the limitation that problems of grain supply and demand are studied mainly from the macro angle in existing researches and also richened theories of Chinese grain economy at a certain extent.(2) Progress in method. The author adopts enormous existing statistical data and materials, applies all kinds of scientific decomposition methods in data of grain production and demand, and establishes regional equilibrium sheets of grain supply and demand from 1992 to 2005 to analyze the history of regional change of main grain supply and demand in China. The author constructs regional Nerlove Models for three species of grain and AIDS Panel Data Models which is based on 'modified Stone Price Index' proposed by Moschini to empirically analyze how micro factors influence Chinese grain production and demand from the micro angle of grain producer behavior and consumer behavior and their influence effect. Based on the above study, Partial Equilibrium Theory is utilized to construct GSDM models for rice, wheat and maize, and three projections of low rate of increment, basis and high rate of increment are designed to analyze the fluctuant trend of regional grain supply and demand. The positive study of micro and macro factors which influence regional grain supply and demand can help us to study grain problems more scientifically, which makes the biggish progress in method.(3) Progress in practice. The author applies great normative quantitative analysis and constructs regional equilibrium models of supply and demand for three kinds of grain, to make the in-depth study of the historical change of various grain production and demand in different provinces and regions, of micro influencing factors of grain production and demand, and of the fluctuant trend of regional grain supply and demand in future etc. Depending on which, abundant information concerning regional change of grain supply and demand in China is achieved and political enlightenments are proposed, such as 'fully utilizing price mechanism to regulate grain supply and demand', 'establishing effective arable land protection system', and 'accelerating regional grain trade' and so on. The research results in the dissertation can offer relative government sectors scientific decision-making references to reasonably judge the fluctuant trend of grain supply and demand and to institute policies for grain supply safety in China.
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