Research On Large Real Estate Projects Investment Decision Based On Fuzzy Real Option

The real estate industry associated with high，driven by strong features，is a pillarindustry of the national economy，economic growth. However，real estate developmentis a risky activities，especially large-scale real estate projects，with a large amount ofinvestment，long development cycle，long payback period，its success mainly dependson the make in each development phase the accuracy of the decision-making. Atpresent，the domestic real estate enterprises still take the traditional NPV investmentdecisions. For cross-regional，multi-stage rolling development，with high uncertaintyin large-scale real estate development projects，the application of the theory of defectsexposed "reversible investment，ignoring sunk costs in the cost of real estateinvestment;" rigid decision-making"，ignoring the management flexibility in theoperation of real estate projects;" lack of strategic thinking，you underestimate the valueof the investment opportunities，resulting in a lack of investment and so on. Thus，aconsiderable influence on the investment decisions of large real estate projects effectiveand scientific. Real option is a new method based on financial options and derivatives，emphasizing flexibility in the investment decision-making，management flexibility，atdifferent stages of the real estate development process，with different uncertainties，these uncertainties，the real estate developers have different option that is a realoption，to make up for the lack of traditional investment decision-making methods tomake investment decisions more scientific，and has great practical value.This paper reviews and compares the traditional investment decision theorymethod，the basic theory and method of real options，highlighting the superiority ofreal options in the investment decision. Thus for large real estate projects real optioncharacteristics analysis，on the basis of the traditional real options，the introduction offuzzy mathematics blurring of the traditional real options model input variables to be corrected to a single real options model compound real options model，the use of Thetrapezoidal fuzzy mathematics method，were constructed Fuzzy Real Option investmentdecision model and fuzzy compound real options investment decision-making modeland reference the expectations calculated value of the option to eliminate the ambiguityin the results. Finally，a large real estate project in Xi’an，for example，the use oftraditional NPV method and fuzzy real option method to the analysis of investmentdecisions. Empirical analysis shows that the fuzzy real options approach than thetraditional investment decision-making methods in projects with greater uncertainty inthe investment decision-making more scientific，with larger theoretical significance andpractical value.The thesis focuses on the improvement of real estate investment decision-makingmethod in-depth study，the fuzzy real options approach，can be more accurateassessment of the value of real estate investments，to a certain extent to solve theuncertainty of the real estate investment field to quantify the investment in investingactivities the opportunity and operating flexible option value，so that the real optionpricing closer to the actual，so as to provide a reference for the real estate developmentbusiness decision makers.