| In recent years,real estate has been playing a very important role in our national economy.With the upgrading of national industry,industrial real estate as a new product of real estate has received more and more attention.Industrial real estate,as an organic combination of industry and real estate,contains more property forms,have a long cycle,huge investment,and many uncertainties in the whole investment cycle.Therefore,it is necessary to study the investment decision-making methods for the characteristics of industrial real estate.Real option theory originates from financial option theory,which regards the value of real assets as the rights which belong to the embodiment of investors.Compared with the traditional investment decision-making theory,real options more reflect the added value of management for the project.Facing the more changeable and complex market environment in reality,the real option method is more helpful to investment decisionmaking of investors by quantifying the uncertainty.At the same time,in industrial real estate projects with long investment cycle,many options often coexist,interact and influence each other.However,the traditional real option pricing model also has some drawbacks.The traditional real option pricing model requires that the parameters be a single value.There are fewer cases in the market for specific industrial real estate projects.In practice,this raises high requirements for the estimation of the current value of the underlying assets.At the same time,in the case of fierce market competition and numerous project stakeholders,it is difficult to accurately estimate the option execution price.Based on the real option pricing model,this study uses trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to add left and right extension values to the parameters which are difficult to estimate in order to express the uncertainty of income and investment in investment,so as to provide a more perfect reference for investment decision-making. |
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