Molybdenum Resources Value Theory Research Based On Real Option

The molybdenum resources asdominant mineral resources, their price have theirown particularities, which is more fluctuant than general commodity. For molybdenumresources investment have large scale,long period and strong irreversibility,thesecharacteristics cause bigger investment uncertainty of molybdenum resources andbigger risk of investment ineffectively. Besides, thetraditional price assessment methodwithout considering the uncertainty of future time, thus there is limitation in theapplication. Through the research and analysis of molybdenum resources price theoryand real option theory, this paper using the real option as a new price assessmentmethod detailed study the molybdenum resources price theory. Main contents asfollows:(1) On the basis of molybdenum resources price theory research and real option inmineral resources research status, introducethe main theory and method that relate tothis paper, i.e. the connotation of molybdenum resources price, forecasting method andthe related theory of real option.(2)Analyzedand calculated thecost compositionof molybdenum resources.Simultaneously,using PERT method to do molybdenum resources price long-termforecasts and using neural network to do the short-term forecasts based on themolybdenum resources trend price analysis in recent years.(3) Built four categories of pricing models of real option,and compared thesimilarities and differences between continual models and discrete-timemodels.Simultaneously,on the basis of traditional discounted cash flow method, introduced the real option method to improve the traditional NPV(Net Present Value)method and build the composition of mineral resource assets value.(4) On the basis of molybdenum resource prices forecast and real optionmodelstructure,empirically study price assessment of the Sandaozhuangmolybdenumresources and givethe empirical results.This paper shows that real option is an effective valuation methodat molybdenumresources price theory study.