Henan’s Economic Forecast In The Period Of Twelfth Five-year Plan

In order to make scientific decision and effective management for the provincialParty committee, the provincial government and relevant departments, and promotethe construction of the Central Plains Economic zone, it is necessary to provide someimportant prediction data through modelling the economic development trend ofHenan Province reasonablely.Semi-parametric regressive models with a parametric component and a non-parametric component are more flexible and explicable than pure parametric andnonparametric regression models. In the thesis, some semi-parametric autoregressionmodels for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) index, the per capita GDP index, thePrimary industry, the Secondary industry and the Tertiary industry (1952is100) inHenan Province are established on the basis of semi-parametric regression theories andmethods. The relevant economic indicators are also forcasted. The main contents are asfollows.1. At first, we give a linear autoregressive model of Henan’s GDP index, in whichsignificant variables are selected as the linear variable of the semi-parametric model,and nonsignificant variables as the nonparametric function variables. Then, a semi-parametric autoregression model of the GDP is established by using polynomial splineestimation method. The GDPs in1985-2010are fitted by the semi-parametricregression model. The root mean square error(RMSE) is61.45, and the mean absolutepercentage error(MAPE) is1.14%. The prediction results show that Henan’s GDPduring the Twelfth Five-Year Plan will have a stable growth trend with the averageannual growth rate9.26%.2. Similar to the GDP index modelling method, we establish a semi-parametricautoregressive model for the per capita GDP, in which the lagged one, three, four andsix order variables are viewed as linear variables, and the lagged five order variable as the nonparametric function variable. Then per capita GDPs from1985to2010arefitted by this model. The RMSE is40.28, and the MAPE is1.30%. The predictionresults show that the per capita GDP in Henan will be a steady growth during theTwelfth Five-Year Plan with the average annual growth rate9.35%. The per capitaGDP index will be over6500in2015.3. Similarly, we establish a semi-parametric autoregression model for the Primaryindustry in Henan Province, by which the Primary industry indexes in1984-2010arefitted. The RMSE is19.45, and the MAPE is2.94%. The Primary industry indexes in2011-2015will be1111.1,1174.0,1221.5,1285.8,1347.4respectively. The predictionerror in2011is only0.32%, and the average annual growth rate of the Primaryindustry in Henan during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan will be4.61%.4. Based on the polynomial spline estimation theory, a semi-parametricautoregression model with exogenous variable for the Secondary industry in HenanProvince is established. In this model, the significant variables of the Secondaryindustry and the Tertiary industry are selected as the linear variables and the Primaryindustry as the nonparametric function variables. The Sencondary industry indexesfrom1980to2010are fitted. The RMSE is439.69, and the MAPE is3.5%. Theprediction results indicate that during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the Secondaryindustry in Henan is71683.4in2011, and it will rapidly increase to111376.9in2015.The average annual growth rate is11.92%.5. By constructing a linear autoregressive model for the Tertiary industry index inHenan Province and selecting the nonsignificant first-order lag variable as anonparametric function variable, a semi-parametric autoregression model isestablished based on the polynomial spline method. By calculating, the RMSE of theTertiary industry from1981to2010in Henan is203.36, and the MAPE is2.49%. Theaverage annual growth rate of the Tertiary industry in Henan during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan will be10.93%. Except the growth of9.15%in2012, the chain growth ratewill be more than10%in other years.In short, Henan’s economic will appear relatively stable growth during theTwelfth Five-Year Plan. The per capita GDP index and the three industrial indexes willalso be increased steadily. The Second industry will be still the leading one in Henan’seconomic structure, and the Tertiary industry will also get a fast development.