| With the increasing openness of China's economy and the deepening of the marketization of exchange rate,the relationship between the domestic market and the international money market is becoming more and more close.Exchange rate will affect domestic economic growth through export and non-export channels.However,due to the regional heterogeneity,these effects are obviously inconsistent among different regions.This paper studies the export transmission efficiency of the exchange rate fluctuations in a spatial perspective,which help us to understand the transmission mechanism of exchange rate and help us to make use of fiscal policy and industrial policy to weaken the negative impact of exchange rate shocks,and improve the economic growth effect of exports.First of all,this paper reviews the related theoretical and empirical literatures about the relationships among exchange rate,export trade and economic growth,summing up the "exchange rate-regional exports-regional economic growth"framework,as well as its transmission mechanism.Secondly,this paper studied the development trend of RMB real effective exchange rate,export and regional economic growth,as well as their regional imbalance.Besides,we explored the spatial agglomeration characteristics and evolution of export and economic growth through the MORAN'I index and MORAN plot.Next,this paper constructs a semiparametric global vector autoregressive model(SGVAR)to analyze the effects of exchange rate on export trade and economic growth of eastern,central and western areas respectively.We also analyze the spatial relationship between regional exports and economic growth,and calculate the export transmission efficiency of three regional exchange rate fluctuations.Finally,we measured the degree of openness,the way of export trade,export specialization and diversification,and explore the factors influencing the export transmission efficiency,constructing the semi parametric cross section spatial Durbin model(SSDM).It is found that there are significant regional differences in the economic effects of RMB exchange rate,and so as the spatial relationship between export and economic growth.Furthermore,there are significant regional differences in export efficiency of exchange rate fluctuations.Specific conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)The appreciation of RMB has negative effect on economic growth and export.Among them,the Middle Region's export and the Estern Region's economic growth are the most affected.(2)The increase of exports in the East and the West would play a positive role in promoting regional economic growth,while the Middle region shows the opposite trend.(3)The export transmission efficiency is the largest in the East,second in the West,the weakest in the Middle.(4)Export structure is more important than the export itself.The export transmission efficiency,the export effect of exchange rate and economic effects of export will all be influenced by the degree of openness,the way of export trade,the levels of export's specialization and diversification,R&D investment level,government intervention,traffic capacity and the level of FDI,and so on. |
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