Hebei Province Population - Cultivated Land - Grain System Assessment And Coordination Regulation

Population are major consumer groups of grain production whose importantcarrier and material basis are arable land resources. However, arable land resourcesare natural resources which are limited. Therefore, it is an important challenge toensure national food security and we should treat it as a strategic task and systemproject.However,in terms of population, farmland and grain, the safety of grainproduction depends on the coordinated development of these three elementsmentioned. Nowadays, we have a large population base in China but the quality of thepopulation is not optimistic. With the rapid expansion of urbanization and the relativeincrease of grain demand, arable land resources, however, have been decreasing yearby year. There are three major problems faced by the safety of grain production:firstly, the conflict between population and the safety of grain production; secondly,the complex structure of these resources; finally, system supply lags.In this paper, theresearch on the relationships among population, land and grain is of great significance,whether in terms of theory, institution or reality.In the thesis, first establish the growth of population, on the usage of arable landresources and internal coordination system of food production, secondly, in the cleardefinition on the basis of the above three points, construct a composite index ofpopulation change and development, changing of index on the usage of arable landresources and the food production index. Finally, establish the state of the systemcoordination’s evaluation model, and then operate on it to determine and identify theevolution state and coordination process of the system for the last10years of Hebei.The result shows: from1996to2011, population, arable land and food of HebeiProvince–the overall coordination value C and coordinated development value Dwas increased after the first decreased state. From1996to2003, the overallcoordination value C was decreased from0.6251to0.0003, and then increased to0.5821in2011. The coordinated development value D was decreased from0.27414in1996to0.00254in2003, again it increased to0.35705in2011. The level of coordinated development has remained at a low level state coordination from1996to2009.Through the usage of forecasting model grey GM (1,1) to forecast against thecoordinated development outcomes of population, arable land and food of HebeiProvince from1996to2011. The overall coordination value C and the coordinateddevelopment value D were continually increased from2012, but it rose marginally,the coordination level wasn’t high. Under the premise of forecasting, the coordinateddevelopment of population, arable land and food of Hebei Province is not ideal,it willnot be able to achieve a high level of coordination in the current situation.Therefore, in order to achieve high level of coordinated development of the threeelements mentioned, population, arable land and grain,we must focus on three areas:population, the protection of arable land as well as increasing the productivity ofgrain. Therefore, the following opinions are put forward to ensure the safety of grainproduction.Firstly, we need to take steps to control the growth of population, to improvepopulation quality and to optimize the population structure; secondly, we advice tomaintain effective management of farmland, to build the rule of law, to strengthen theconstruction of agricultural infrastructure and to increase the quantity and quality ofarable land protection; thirdly, we suggest to emphasis on the progress of scientificand technological and to increase food production; fourthly, we advice to improve theenthusiasm of farmers for growing grain; lastly, we wish to boost greatly thedevelopment of new towns.