Study On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Supply Chain Finance Based On Logistic Model

In recent years, supply chain finance, as a kind of innovative financial tool, has become an important business object for banks to carry out with the rapid development in China, which solves the financing problem of small and medium enterprises in some degree. The steady development of supply chain finance largely depends on how to evaluate and control the credit risk. Research emphasis is focused on the application of supply chain finance to resist the credit risk, however, it’s short of the research on the credit risk of supply chain itself. It is beneficial for banks to make the right decision and significant to promote the development of supply chain finance to evaluate the supply chain finance credit risk accurately and effectively.The thesis focuses on the credit risk evaluation of supply chain finance. First, it analyses on the main participator and the operation characteristics of supply chain finance. Second, it chooses Logistic model to measure the supply chain finance credit risk compared with the applicability of the various credit risk evaluation model. Then it identifies the risk of the financing model of supply chain finance, considers the impact of each participant on it, taking financing enterprises, core enterprise, logistics enterprise and industry supply chain as primary targets, builds up the supply chain finance index system of credit risk evaluation. Finally, empirical analysis is carried out by taking the empirical data of automobile manufacturing industry of China, which removes some indicators that has little influence on supply chain finance by using one-way ANOVA, extracts four factors as new variables in logistic model by using the factor analysis, classifies sample companies into risk group and risk-free group by Interest-bearing liabilities ratio, and does the fitting text on the regression results.A conclusion has been drawn by analyzing the credit risk index selection and making empirical research. First, the financing enterprise’s solvency and profitability have significant effects on supply chain finance credit risk. Second, as a credit guarantee, the core enterprises’solvency and profitability impact greatly on supply chain finance. Finally, the capability of logistics enterprise and status of the industry also influence on supply chain finance credit risk importantly, and some related suggestions are proposed to keep away the supply chain finance credit risk.