The Prevention Of Systemic Financial Risk Of China

With the speeding up of the economic development and globalization, national economicand financial development more closely linked. As a developing country, China’s economyand financial system are facing increasing uncertainly. Paying attention to the currentfinancial systematic risk of China, knowing the characteristic of China’s financial systemicrisk, establishing China’s financial systemic risk early warning, monitoring and preventionsystem in China, are important for preventing the outbreaks of systemic financial crisis inChina.This paper mainly studied the Chinese financial systemic risk, It deeply analyzed thepresent situation of Chinese financial systemic risk and its contagious path. In this paper,systemic financial risk was divided into the overall macroeconomic operation risk, economicrisk, the banks bad debts bubble cumulative risk, debt risk and external risk, each of the typesof risk were selected for the corresponding prevention index, In this paper, it used AHP andDelphi method to evaluate systemic financial risk from2001to2010, at the same time usingvarious econometric test and model combination analyzed contagious path of China’ssystemic financial risk. The study found China’s systemic financial risk has been in the saferange, degree of systemic financial risk is not high, but we should pay attention to the changein the macroeconomic operation risk and bubble economy risk. The analysis of contagiouspath of systemic financial risk found the prevention of systemic financial risk should befocused on the real economy、the banking system and foreign debt market risk, especially thereal economy risk. According to the comprehensive analysis and path of a systemic financialrisk analysis of the conclusions, combined with the international experience of financial riskprevention system, put forward to China’s prevention policy recommendations of systemicfinancial risk.