| In the WTO "green box" policy framework, the main function of policyagricultural insurance service is not stability of disperse natural risks to agriculturalproduction, this feature makes the farmers suffer the natural risk, can quickly becompensated so as to restore the normal production and operation, resulting inreduction of natural risk production fluctuation, increase whole society the level ofwelfare. And the rate of crop insurance actuarial, ensure that the insurance liabilityand insurance accord is the basis of improving farmers’ insurance rates and InsuranceCompany underwriting rate is essential to work. At present, domestic and foreignscholars mainly adopts "yield distribution model derivation method"(includingparameter estimation method and non-parametric estimation method) and"meteorological index" to assess the risks of crop yield. The actuarial model of cropinsurance premium capacity under the condition of large sample data, the domesticresearch literature basically agree, namely the nonparametric kernel density method isoptimal in a large sample data. However, for the small sample data research shouldadopt parameter method or non controversial parameter method. At the same time,less sample data (mainly refers to yield time series crop) can also be due to doping"moral hazard" Insured factor has great randomness and uncertainty, which leads tothe final result of unscientific.In view of this, this research will do the research from the following several aspects:1empirical test of large sample data capacity conditions, different parameters of thecrop model between the pure premium rate difference, and determined the optimaldistribution model of crop yield, and the derived rate crop reference standard;2in thefirst step, quantitative comparison of large data capacity conditions, differencesbetween parametric and nonparametric method to determine the crop insurancepremium;3in the condition of small sample data capacity respectively by parametricmethod and non-parametric method of same area crop insurance premium, the first stepto determine the reference standard is the optimal actuarial model under small sample.4the last comprehensive crop insurance faced in practical operation, the parametermethod and the method of the organic combination of meteorological index of cropinsurance premium in the small sample data capacity. Finally, by using the methods oftheoretical analysis and empirical test, to explore in the current crop yield and the riskof natural disasters, a serious shortage of statistical range record is not fine conditions,optimal model of scientific methods of crop insurance premium. |
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