Analyze On The Input Effects Of International Oil Price Fluctuation By Computing General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

With the development of our country’s economy fast, the demonic demand for oilis growing fast. Under the background of internationa l economic integration,especia lly a fter the financ ia l cris is in time, the increase of Internationa l oil prices willbring d ifferent degrees of impact to the countries all o ver the world, inc lude China. Itwill suffer from the “input” impact to our macroeconomic, which only for thedeve loping country. Under this background, we research the influe nce on Chinesemacro econo my o f oil price increase with the theory about it a nd use CGE model.Through the find about how the way and the path of the international oil prices’influe nce on China, in order to find the key link to smooth economic fluctuateamp litude. Try to ensure that China’s economic develop healthily and sustainab le.This is the meaning of this paper.Base on the upside background and meaning of this paper. Firstly, the authorrecalls the previous research and literature about this topic. Analyze the contactbetween the foreign o il price and the domestic oil price, Further points out that thedisadvantage of exis ting domestic refined oil price mechanis m. Then, based onmecha nis m about influe nce on China of oil price increasing, update the systemdatabase; make some creations on previs ion CGE model. Introduce the domestic oilprice depict mecha nis m, insert Price decompositio n model, comp lete the theory model.Simulate the degree of input risk into the macro economy to our country byinternationa l o il prices increase10%of cases. Compare the long time s imulationresults with short time results. The rise in oil prices will bring the domestic growth ofGDP decline, resulting in labor emplo yment rate decline. It industry le ve l, the secondindustry affected to a greater extent than that of the first industry and the thirdindustry. At the same time, the high o il correlation coeffic ient industries affectedsignificantly higher than other industries. What’s more, the imported inflation followsthe high internationa l oil price. The influe nce degree on the CPI is higher tha n that onthe PPI.For the lo ng time, generally speaking, the impactions on the economic syste mis reducing with time lapses. But the CPI is expected, thanks to it reflects to theinternationa l o il price postpone. At last, in the CPI and PPI price decompositio n, wefind that the imported media inp uts goods and The logis tics cost changes to a largerextent， It contributes much to the CPI and PPI. Generally speaking, the up of internationa l o il price will affect Chinese economy deeply a nd evidently. But it willnever be so serious like some professor” prediction.In the end, base on the conc lus io n of this pap er, the author make some suggestionabout how to improve the ability of dealing with the risk of internatio nal o il pricefluctuation.