The Factors Analysis Of The Timber Price Volatility In China Based On EMD

With the rapid development of China’s economy, the contradiction between the increasingly scarce resources and the stable development of economy has become more and more prominent. As an important means of production, timber plays a significant position and role in the development of our national economy. Having a correctly understanding of the timber’s price fluctuation in the timber market, can not only enable us to understand the situation of China’s timber market better, but also is conducive to the healthy development of the national economy.In this paper, the data comes from "China Forestry Yearbook","China Forestry Statistical Yearbook", and "China Forestry Development Report". Firstly this paper introduces the current situation of China’s timber market, including timber supply, timber consumption and timber price. Secondly, using the Empirical Mode Decomposition model to analysis the domestic timber price and the imported timber price, then making related statistical analysis according to the decomposition result. Thirdly, the paper establishes the correlation and regression analysis model between the decomposition results and the factors that aifect the timber price, in order to explore the inherent rules under the volatility of timber price. Finally, several conclusions and outlook are put forward in this article.The main conclusions are as follows:1. By establishing the empirical mode decomposition model, the domestic timber price and the imported timber price are decomposed into two intrinsic mode functions and a residual trend component respectively. The average periods for two intrinsic mode functions of the domestic timber price were respectively3years and6years, and the average periods for two intrinsic mode functions of the imported timber price were respectively2years and4years.2. By analyzing the components’statistical information such as the average period, the maximum amplitude, the correlation coefficient and the variance contribution rate, we can find that the domestic timber price’s volatility is relatively stable while the fluctuation of the imported timber price is frequent.3. By establishing the correlation and regression models, this paper obtains factors that affecting each component of the domestic timber price and the imported timber price. The factors of domestic timber price’s small-scale fluctuation are the amount of imported log, imported log price and domestic timber price of the previous period; the factors of the large-scale fluctuation are domestic timber production, the amount of investment in forestry, the degree of dependence on foreign trade and forestry policies; the factors of the long term tendency are the growth rate of GDP, the total output value of construction industry, stumpage and exchange rate. The factors of imported timber price’s small-scale fluctuation are domestic timber price; the factors of the large-scale fluctuation are the amount of imported log, domestic timber production, the imported log price of the previous period, exported log piece and the amount of investment in forestry; the factors of the long term tendency are exchange rate, the growth rate of GDP, CPI and stumpage.