Real Estate Investment Decision Research Of Ensuring Housing Based On Option Game And Risk Preference

36million sets of ensuring housing are planed to be built during the "TwelfthFive-year plan" period in China, and unable to develop sustainably due to theenormous pressure of central finance. Investment of real estate enterprises in ensuringhousing faces both great market opportunities and challenges under the severe statemacro-control. Investment decision of real estate in ensuring housing facing thenational macro policies, market risks, construction costs and many other uncertaintiesis an extremely complex process. Because traditional investment decision method ofinvestment neglects the future uncertainties and information asymmetry of projects,there is a need to establish a rational investment decision model of real estateenterprises, which take adequately into account the impact of factors such asuncertainties, competitive and their own preferrence of risk, to make scientific andrational decisions for ensuring housing projects.Basing on the traditional method of investment decision and taking domestic andforeign research results for reference, the thesis analyzes the uncertainty andimperfect competition of ensuring housing projects, combining with the theory ofoption game and risk preference with a omnidirectional perspectives, this thesisresearches on the investment of real estate enterprises in ensuring housing, andestablishes a investment decision system of ensuring housing. The main contents areas follows:（1）Firstly, the definition and types of ensuring housing are introduced, thecharacteristics of ensuring housing and common commercial housing arecomparatively analyzed as well as the profit mode and development trend of realestate enterprise involved in the construction of ensuring housing are introduced.Then the state macro policies, the ensuring housing construction market, as well asthe development of ensuring housing projects are analyzed. At last, SWOT(advantages, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of ensuring housingmarket that real estate is involved in.（2）Combining the features of investing ensuring housing projects as well asrisk preference analysis of investment decision makers. Real options analysis, gameanalysis of real estate investment in ensuring housing are analyzed, considering theeffect of ensuring housing projects, the competitors and real estate investmentdecision makers. （3）Decision-making system of real estate investment ensuring housing isestablished to make clear the basic problems of investment in ensuring housingprojects and study the uncertain factors of ensuring housing investment decisionsquantitatively as well as determine the value function of participants and thepreference function of investors. Based on the theory of option game and riskpreference, the ensuring housing investment decision model of real estate has beenbuilt.（4）Taking the ensuring housing projects built in West Plum Brook Lake,Changsha in Hunan province as background,the investment decision of real estateenterprise A and B are separately analyzed using the above theory and methods, inorder to prove that the model is scientific and feasible, which could provide referencefor decision-making of the other real estate companies and government investmentmechanisms.