Research On The Real Estates Investment Decision-making Based On The Improved Model Of Real-option-games Theory

In the early stage of the development of China's real estate market,the huge housing demand has promoted the prosperity of the real estate market,and the real estate industry has become the leader of China's economic development.Twenty years of rapid development,China's real estate market has accumulated a huge risk,made the real estate market from the rapid growth phase to the depth adjustment phase.Huge inventory pressure and high prices put the development of the real estate market in a dilemma.But it is clear that even in such difficult circumstances,the real estate market contribution to national economic growth rate remained at around 8%,it is still an important part of Chinese economy,Therefore,it is necessary to carry out scientific research on the real estate enterprises and promote the healthy and orderly development of the real estate market.Regulation of the real estate market does not mean that do not develop the real estate market,but to help the real estate market more orderly and rational develop.And guide the real estate enterprises to carry out scientific and reasonable project investment decisions,it has become an important measure to limit the expansion of the real estate market,standardize the operation of real estate enterprises.In the past,when the real estate enterprises made project investment decisions,the net present value based on the discounted cash flow method is the basis for judging whether the project is feasible,as long as the NPV is greater than the cost of inputs,that the investment project is profitable.However,we find that there are still some problems in using this method to make investment decisions in real estate projects,on the one hand,this investment philosophy is based on a static market environment,it does not take into account the market demand,price volatility and many other uncertain factors in the future.On the other hand,due to the serious homogeneity of the real estate business,the real estate enterprises are facing fierce market competition in the process of land acquisition,project construction and commercial housing sales.However,the net present value does not take into account the influence of the interaction strategy between firms on the return on investment.But the real option game method can make up the limitation of the net present value method.The method of real option game is based on the real option theory and game theory,it takes into account the uncertainty of the future market,and gives more flexibility to the project investment decision,at the same time,it also considers the impact of the project investment decision made by the enterprise in the interactive game with the competitor's investment strategy on the final return of the enterprise investment.The study found that the real option game method for investment decision analysis can well make up for the inadequacy of traditional investment decision methods,and help the real estate project investment decision makers make more accurate judgments of value.Based on the existing research at home and abroad,we made an analysis and discussion on the double symmetric game model,double headed asymmetric game model,three head symmetric game model and the three head asymmetric game model.At the same time,taking the real estate market of Chongqing as an example,we analyzed the basic situation of the economic and social development and the situation of the real estate market in Chongqing,my purpose is to provide a more scientific and effective decision-making method for the investment decision of real estate enterprises in Chongqing,and to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.The main structure of this paper is as follows:First,theory introduction and situation analysis.This paper introduced the two basic theories of real option game model,and based on the real option,game theory and real option game literature review,grasping the real option game theory and the use of real option game theory in the real estate market,understand the current research situation at home and abroad.Second,this paper introduced the present situation of Chongqing's real estate economic and social development and the present situation of the real estate market development,and analyzed the characteristics of the real estate market in Chongqing and the good trend in the future.Third,this paper analyzed the characteristics of the real estate project investment,as well as the advantages and disadvantages of several traditional and representative real estate investment decision methods.summarizing the characteristics of the real option game theory and analyzing the feasibility of using the real option game method in real estate investment decision making.Fourth,the real option game analysis of real estate investment decision.Based on the existing research foundation and theory of knowledge,respectively analyzed in the duopoly market,revenue and investment threshold option game of real estate enterprises with asymmetric conditions,return the option game three head real estate market enterprise of symmetric and asymmetric conditions and investment threshold.Fifth,using the representative data of real estate development enterprises in Chongqing Zhao Mu Shan,and then the investment game is analyzed under the same market background.Sixth,summary and recommendations.Through the theoretical analysis and case data,pointed out that the scientific and advanced of the use of real option game model in real estate project investment decision field,and put forward some suggestions for the investment decision of real estate enterprises.