An Empirical Study On Factors Influencing The Family Financial Asset Allocation

The household portfolio allocation’s expression differs under the combined effects from both the family internal factor and the economic circumstance. Copmared to the company unit, the household are more prone to diviant behavior. Thus, it is necessary. Meanwhile, as the economic cycle stage indicators of systemic risk are rarely included in the research framework, these are the starting point of this study.This article will start from theoretical inspection, literature review and Comparative analysis, then profile the characters of household portfolio choice in our country, build up framework of the household portfolio’s concept model and derive assumptions. Then the article will analyze the micro affections in Chinese household portfolio behaviors and the correlations, based on survey. At last, the article will perform an empirical study from the macro angle; based on the forecasts of future economic trend, give advice on the household portfolio choice during the next10years in our country. The conclusions suggest, In our country’s household portfolio choice, the influences include personality, institution, income, expense and investment. Among the influences, the risk appetite has positive correlation with investment; the social security level has a U-shape correlation with the portfolio; and the selection among different financial investments is correlated. Based on the results of regression analysis, the demand deposit is mostly correlated by income; the stock investment mostly depends on income, demand&time deposit, transfer expenditure and expense; bond investment mostly depends on investment appetite, range of time deposit, investment in gold or bank’s financial product. At the meantime, the structural equation model confirms the positive correlation between income and investment. From1990to2011, the household portfolios in our country can reflect the true volatilities of economic cycle. From the long-term angle, the Chinese economy still locates in the recession phase. Based on the investment clock model, bond investment will be the best choice for household portfolios before2014, and the stock after2014, for the economy is coming to recovery phase. The conclusions of this article are helping to locate the influences of household portfolio choice, guide households to settle strategic asset allocation, provide references for families’decision in consumption, saving and investment and provide references for macro-policies making financial maket improving and financial products’design in our country.