Analysis Of The Factors Affecting Sino-US Trade Imbalance

Since sign the<Sino-US Agreement on Trade Relations>, bilateral trade scale is increasing. According to Chinese statistics, total bilateral trade in1979is less than2.5billion dollars while the number in2011is reached to446.7billion dollars. Although the bilateral trade volume in the rising, but the trade imbalance problem has become more serious. China’s trade surplus reached202.3billion dollars in2011, year-on-year growth of11.6%.In recent years, the United States use the huge trade deficits as an excuse, as the identity of the victim, and makes use of the RMB exchange rate and other issues to pressure China, asked China to take responsibility for the realization of the balance of trade. At the same time, the war of trade friction is more and more. China and the United States as the world’s largest developing country and the largest developed countries, the bilateral trade have important influence on the development of the global economy. So far-reaching trade imbalances is whether China’s mistakes? If the Chinese government should accept the United States allegations, increase the value of the RMB or solve other trade friction question? This paper is based on these perspectives, through in-depth study of Sino-US trade in order to get the answer.This paper is divided into four parts:The first part is the introduction and theoretical. First it briefly introduced the research background and significance, literature review and so on. Then defines the relevant concepts, introduces the international payments elastic analysis theory and national income accounting theory, this is the basic for the later empirical analysis of exchange and saving rate.The second part is the present situation and impact of Sino-US trade imbalance. Use the statistical differences and trade imbalance degree to illustrate the serious and the characteristics of the problem. Then respectively explain positive and negative impact on the U.S. economy and impact on China’s economy. In order to more comprehensive look at the pros and cons of Sino-US trade imbalances.The third part is the influence factors of the problem. First through the development history of the Chinese exchange rate and Granger causality test analysis the relationship between Exchange rates and trade imbalances; Followed by research on status of China’s high savings rate and the establish the regression model to analysis the saving rate effect on the trade imbalance; Last briefly introduce statistical difference, industrial transfer and United State’s exports control to China.The fourth part is conclusions and suggestions. Through the research, we have some conclusions:RMB exchange rate has negligible effect on Sino-US trade imbalance; Savings rate differences of the two countries are a major cause of trade imbalance; United States is not a victim of the trade imbalance, export controls should have distorting the balanced trade. At last, we have some suggestions, such as be caution with the exchange rate; active to make negotiations; have better industrial structure; expanding domestic demand to make sure Chinese economy can be sustained and stable.