Study On Sino-US Trade Imbalance, Does RMB Exchange Rate Has Definitely Relationship With Sino-US Trade Imbalance

Sino-US trade deficit continued to remain high, the RMB exchange rate under great controversy. On this basis, this article tries to make the analysis on the fundamental cause of the Sino—US trade imbalance. First, the paper reviews the process of China-US economic and trade development. Then, try to empirical analyze the relationship of Sino-US trade imbalance and RMB exchange rate, using ADF test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test method. Next, considers the differences of unit labor costs between the US and China, differences of savings rate between the U.S the China, the RMB exchange rate changes etc. On this basis, gives policy recommendations. This article is divided into four chapters:1. The paper reviews the process of China-US economic and trade development, including the Sino-US economic and trade relations, the characteristics of Sino-US trade and the emergence and development of Sino-US trade imbalance. Furthermore, reviews and compare the relationship between Sino-US trade imbalance and RMB exchange rate.2. An empirical analysis based on the data from 1985—2010.using the ADF test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test method and other empirical methods, we can draw the conclusion that the Sino-US trade imbalance and RMB exchange rate have not certainly relationship.3. Taking into account of other facts, the differences of unit labor costs between the US and China etc., differences of savings rate between the U.S the China, an empirical analysis, try to figure out the reason of the Sino-US trade imbalance.4. On this basis, the paper gives policy recommendations as follow:insist the legitimate rights and interests of labors, increase the payment to labor;Encourage the consumption and lower savings rate;improve the position of China in the international product chain:establish Current Account calculating system based on ownership.