The Effects Of The Basic Medical Insurance For Urban Workers On The Patients’ Hospital Choice Behavior In Shenyang:a Study Based On Multi-Agent Modelling Simulation

In the current medical service system,"proper health care is difficult to get"and"proper health care is expensive",but in this context there are embarrassing situation of " the general hospital is overcrowded "and "no one shows any interest in primary hospital". Therefore,how to play the role of the basic medical insurance in patients’hospital choice has the very vital significance.This study builds on previous patient’s hospital choice behavior research and, is to explore the influence factors of patients’hospital choice and mainly focuses on the analysis of its macroeconomic effects with social medical insurance policy adjustments, by using the relevant data of Shenyang city patients and the medical institutions and the methods of multi-agent modeling and system dynamics fixed simulation experiment from the AnyLogic platform. And This paper designs three sub-models,that is, residents model, disease model and hospital model, and according to these sub models residents’hospital select statechart is designed. Three set of simulation experiments are also builded. The three group of experiments peform based on the adjustment of basic medical insurance coverage, medical insurance reimbursement ratio, the number of registered hospitals. After verification, three groups of experimental data’s relative error and RMS value shows that the entire model has certain validity and predictive. Through the analysis of the three groups of simulation experimental results analysis, we find when the improved coverage to more than65%will not only increase the proportion of patients going to grade I hospital and gradeⅢhospital, but also decrease the average medical costs; With adjustment of different range of reimbursement ratio the entire community patients’ hospital choice will change, and a series of the corresponding optimal reimbursement ratio has been identified; At the same time, the change of registered grade I hospitals’volume will also affect the patients’ choice and we also has identified the optimal hospital volume ratio between different hospitals. Moreover, according to the simulation results, the author puts forward several suggestions to improve patients hospital choice.