RMB Appreciation China's Processing Trade Surplus Continued To Widen In The Context Of The Mystery

The appreciation of the RMB is the long-term interest issues fecing China’s economic development, the appreciation of the effects embodied in the areas of trade and investment, especially a tremendous impact on trade. In2011, China’s processing trade reached＄1.30522trillion, the same year, China’s processing trade surplus of365.62billion U.S. dollars, however, the trade surplus amounted to155.13billion U.S. dollars, the processing trade surplus is more than twice the total trade surplus, we can see that processing trade surplus has become the most important source of China’s trade surplus."Surplus" trade imbalances accumulated over the years in China is the main source of the appreciation of the RMB. From a historical point of view, since July2005, the RMB continues to appreciate, to201112months against the U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate has appreciated by nearly30%, and the expected appreciation of the process will continue. Why, in the context of the appreciation of the RMB, China’s processing trade surplus continues to expand? RMB appreciation can change the situation of China’s trade imbalances? How should I choose the path of appreciation in order to reduce the negative impact of the appreciation? Through the trade balance effect of exchange rate changes, try to answer the series of questions.In this paper, both from the theoretical and empirical crack under the background of the appreciation of the RMB, the processing trade surplus continues to expand the fans.Theory, first expounded the theory of the real effective exchange rate, as well as the calculation method of the real effective exchange rate, then the exchange rate pass-theory, and how it affects the processing trade, and finally its own characteristics based on the processing trade, Cost Structure Analysis the impact of RMB appreciation on the export of processing trade mechanism. Concluded that, due to the special nature of the processing trade two out, the impact of the appreciation of the RMB on the processing trade is very small, the opposite is likely to expand the processing trade surplus, and thus make China’s trade surplus to widen again.Empirical, we select the import and export of processing trade, FDI, national income, the real effective exchange rate, trade policy and other variables, the first test the stability of these variables, and found that the first difference of these variables is divided into stationary series, and then co-the whole method of long-run equilibrium relationship between these variables and found that the processing trade and the real effective exchange rate, FDI, economic growth, policy variables have a long-term equilibrium relationship, wherein the policy variables on the import and export of processing trade, the real effective exchange rate of RMB and processing trade imports negatively correlated, there is a positive correlation between the processing trade exports.