Influence Factors Analysis Of International Food Prices From The Perspective Of Food Security

The issue of food security has always been the important issue all countries focus on, which has a profound impact on human life, socio-economic and natural environment. In recent years, due to the imbalance between supply and demand of food, climate change, continuously rising fuel, the rise of biofuels and speculation, as well as the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and other factors, the international food prices has continued to surge. Therefore, experts and scholars from all walks of life, government agencies and media opinion pay more highly attention to the issue of international food prices and realize that fully understanding the factors that affect international food prices are the key to take relevant measures. Although in recent years, part of scholars has made quantitative analysis by building the food price model in research on food prices, most of the research work is based on descriptive qualitative analysis, and few make a systematic study on the reasons of international food price fluctuations and the impact of food price changes. In this context, regarding international food prices as the research object, the paper is trying a depth study of the impact factors of international food prices through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The paper is divided into six chapters, the structure and basic content of each chapter is as follows:Chapter Ⅰ:Introduction. This chapter introduces the paper’s research purpose and significance, the status at home and abroad, as well as research content, method and innovation.Chapter Ⅱ:Related concepts and theoretical basis. Specifically including:the definition of food security, agricultural weak theory, the theory of positive externalities of agriculture, food price volatility law-Cobweb Model, international trade theory of agricultural products. This chapter provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of affect factors of international food prices.Chapter Ⅲ:Analysis of the trends and characteristics of the fluctuations in international food prices. Volatility of international food prices IS significant. Since1981, the international food price trends can be divided into three stages: The first stage (1981-1990):fluctuating down; stationary phase of the second stage (1991-2000); The third phase (2001-2010) volatility rose. The characteristic of international food price is comprehensively summarized through the introduction of international food fluctuation trends, providing the necessary reality basis for further analysis.Chapter Ⅳ:The main factors affecting international food prices. Based on the foregoing research, this chapter determines the impact of the international food factors, such as:the imbalance between supply and demand, energy (oil) prices, exchange rates, agricultural policy, futures speculation, population, trade, and other factors. The instability of international food prices is the result of joint action by different factors. This chapter will analyse various factors on the practical and theoretical level to provide the basis for selecting papers’econometric model variables.Chapter Ⅴ:Econometric analysis of affecting factors for international food prices. Combined with the factors analyzed in the fourth chapter, relevant impact factor will be selected to establish the quantitative analysis model for international food prices’ affecting factors. Unit root test will adapt the ADF one by multicollinearity stepwise regression analysis. In the end, the correlation between affecting factors and food prices will use the least squares method and combined with the last research, the measuring results will be analyzed systematically. The econometric result indicates that international food prices has a negative correlation with exchange rates, import and export trade and population structure and the other variables does not affect international food prices significantly. By empirical analysis of influencing factors of wheat, rice, corn and barley prices, single species prices is influenced by food supply. Chapter Ⅵ:Policy recommendations and prospects. On the basis of the text analysis and the problems found in the study, the relevant policy recommendations and future research directions will be proposed in the chapter. The policy recommendations includes:to strengthen international cooperation in food and agriculture, multilateral co-governance mechanism, improving the international grain futures market, reasonable, effective and correct development of bio-energy, to build and perfect the system of import and export trade to ensure food security as well as to constantly improve food subsidies policy.