Research On The Influencing Factors Of China's Food Security From The Perspective Of International Trade

Since my country's accession to the WTO,the domestic grain market has become increasingly relevant to the international grain market.At the same time,the rapid development of the domestic economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards have caused our people to gradually change their food needs.In addition,my country has also undergone changes in international food trade.my country 's total grain imports in 2004 were only 20 million tons,but the total imports reached 108.5 million tons in 2019,and the net soybean imports in this year reached 88.034 million tons.This shows that the dependence of the domestic food market on the international food market is gradually increasing.In addition,as one of my country's major grains,the import and export of grains changed significantly in 2009.Because grain,the grain from 1998 to 2008,has always maintained a trend that exports are greater than imports,and this trend in 2009 has become that grain imports are greater than grain exports,and this trade difference reached in 2018 20.46 million tons.This shows that the correlation between my country's grain market and the international grain market is getting closer and closer,and more of it is the increasing dependence of my country's grain market on foreign countries.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to construct a reasonable system of influencing factors of food security,explore the influencing factors of my country's food security under the trade environment and make reasonable suggestions in a targeted manner.This thesis takes the grain self-sufficiency index as the research object,and takes the influencing factors of China's food security under the trade environment as the research goal,and sorts out the literature on the influencing factors of food supply and demand.Then,this thesis analyzes the theoretical mechanism to extract the food security In the end,this paper uses a vector autoregressive model to analyze the intensity and time span of each impact factor on food security under the trade environment.The construction of the food security influencing factor system,the research on the effect of each influencing factor,and the selection of research objects are innovative.First,a system of factors affecting food security was established.Based on the literature review and theoretical analysis,after screening for influence factors,the national income,total domestic population,actual effective exchange rate,fertilizer application rate,agricultural research investment intensity,domestic and foreign food price ratio,and comprehensive agricultural mechanization rate System of factors affecting food security.Second,the empirical analysis of the specific effects of each of the influencing factors on the self-sufficiency rate of grains.The vector autoregressive model is used as an empirical model,and each influencing factor modulated by the stationarity is used as the shock variable.The self-sufficiency rate of food in the trading environment is the response object and time span.Finally,the research shows that under the trade environment,the same factor has different impacts on the food security of different varieties.Among non-trade factors,agricultural R & D investment and comprehensive agricultural mechanization rate have a greater effect on food security.Grain price ratio has a greater impact on food security,especially on soybean security.Based on the results of empirical research,several countermeasures are proposed to ensure China's food security level in the context of trade,including the establishment of a mechanism to avoid exchange rate shocks on food prices,a sound early warning mechanism for food price fluctuations,and strengthening the construction of agricultural mechanization.