The Impact Of Macroeconomic Variables On Real Estate Price-Difference

Since China’s housing system reform in1998, the original welfare housing system was abolished, the real estate market entered to the market stage, this greatly promoted the demand of real estate market, the real estate industry developed rapidly with increasingly high house price level. The real estate industry has become a pillar industry of our national economy. However, during the development process of China’s real estate, the government has carried out large-scale real estate regulation to ensure the healthy and stable development of real estate market, but the effect is not significant, policy lag and inaccurate policy efforts are the most prominent problems, the government’s understanding of relationship between house price and macroeconomic variables is not accurate. In addition, China has a vast territory, and the local economic development levels are quite different as the real estate market law of development of the first-line, second-line, and third-line cities are not the same. Based on this background, this article tries to start from economic fundamentals, and respectively discusses the relationship between the first-line, second-line, third-line cities and the macroeconomic variables, and the effects of various macroeconomic variables on real estate price index.This article first reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad, and compares the model and method of house price and macroeconomic. Meanwhile, a series of macroeconomic variables are selected to carry on the empirical research with reference existing research results and combines with China’s real estate situation. Applying the data of the first quarter of2002to the fourth quarter of2011of selected sample cities, using panel data model, we analyze the relationship between housing price index and each macroeconomic variable of the first-line, second-line, and third-line cities. In particular, gross national product doesn’t affect each line city obviously, only weakly promotes the house price of part of the second line cities; Urban household disposable income has greater positive role in promoting the first-line, second line city house price, but to the third line cities, the effect to house price growth is not obvious; CPI has certain positive impact to the first-line, second-line, and third-line cities, but smaller than disposable income effect; Money supply affects the first-line, second-line, and third-line cities most; Social fixed investment positive effects to the first-line, second-line and third-line cities are bigger, second only to the circulation of money, but the influence to the third-line cities is much smaller than the first and second line cities.Finally, based on the conclusion of this study, this article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to the healthy and stable development of our country real estate market.