Research On Virtual Supply Chain Risk Evaluation With Case-Based Reasoning

With the continuous development of economic globalization, enterprises are faced with the increasing scope of competition. Only by the limited resources, it’s difficult for enterprises to win in the market competition. Currently, the global business competition has been developed for supply chain competition. As to the traditional supply chain model, because of the limitations of its structure, the value of the entire supply chain scattered in different segments of the supply chain, and limited the innovation of supply chain development. Therefore, many companies began to jump out of this typical supply chain model, standing on the perspective of the entire global supply chain to manage it. By using the external resources, they organized a virtual supply chain, and combined the scattered value to form their own competitive advantage. Regarding to virtual supply chain as a new management mechanism also has its specific risk. And any problems may affect the whole supply chain function. Therefore, the study of the virtual supply chain risk assessment has very important practical significance.Firstly, the author reviewed case-based reasoning and virtual supply chain risk research status and theories, to determine the case-based reasoning method is suitable for a virtual supply chain risk assessment. And proposed apply the case-based reasoning technology to the virtual supply chain risk assessment. On the basis of the study of the virtual supply chain risk types and influencing factors, this paper constructs a virtual supply chain risk assessment index system, and defines the meaning of various risk indicators. The paper uses frame representation method. Considering the characteristics of virtual supply chain risk’s domain knowledge, the paper established a top frame and sub frame for virtual supply chain risk. In addition, the author achieved the construction of the case base, and planned and designed the detailed case base structure diagram and table structures. And the paper established case indexes. Risk category is the main index, and also set the sub indexes and index options. With constantly updated case library and learning, and gradually perfect case indexing mechanism to strengthen the case base management, and to improve the efficiency of case retrieval.As to the case retrieval, based on the concept of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, this paper improves and proposes a new hybrid method of similarity measure. Meanwhile, the design of case similarity retrieval mechanism contributes to the realization of case-based reasoning model. In the case correction, the paper gives different case correction measures based on three possible outcomes. Specially, for the result of more than one similar case, the calculation of matching rate and accuracy is used to improve the accuracy of decision. About the case study, based on the traditional case study, the author proposes the concept of accumulation case library. Through attribute reduction method to form accumulation cases, simplifying case retrieval feature indicators to improve learning ability and case base retrieval efficiency. Finally, through an example of the process of risk assessment system, the result shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the system.The paper made new attempts for case-based reasoning applications and virtual supply chain risk assessment and improved the real-time and intelligent problem solving. For virtual supply chain risk assessment and prevention, the paper provides a new research ideas and solutions.