Urban Housing Sub-market And Housing Price Evaluation

With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process, the expanding of the city size, and the heterogeneity characteristics of residential products, housing sub-markets are gradually and increasingly prominent in the city. In different sub-markets, there are differences whether in the final prices or in the internal and external factors affecting housing price. Ignoring these differences may make our work such as planning, decision-making, and evaluation built on the basis of incomplete information, which may lead to wrong conclusions. So multi-angle, deep-rooted understanding of the phenomenon of housing sub-markets, and fully tap the urban housing market information is a major goal of this study.One reason for the stubbornly high housing price and long delayed property tax is the tax base is difficult to determine. As traditional assess methods have their flaws, it is difficult to assess housing price in a mass in a short time. Another purpose of this study is to try to establish a set of objective and efficient housing price evaluation system which is suitable for Hangzhou using batch evaluation techniques such as hedonic price model and spatial econometric model and combining GIS technology and urban housing sub-market information.The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) This paper systematically combes location theory, hedonic price theory and housing sub-market theory. As the focus of this study is how to subdivide housing market and compare the evaluation effects, this paper focusly summarize the methods for housing market division and comparing housing price evaluation. Combining the data of2011and2012in Hangzhou’s6main administrative regions, we selecte12elements coving structure characteristic, neighborhood characteristic and location characteristic as study variables which are quantified and processed then.(2)This paper subdivides the housing market of Hangzhou from spatial and non-spatial dimensions. The spatial dimension is based on landscape CBD and the distribution of urban river and traffic arteries, while the non-spatial dimension is based on cluster analysis methods. Then there forms three different types of sub-market structures, which are layer, reticular and non-spatial clustering sub-market structures. Then through the Chow test, the study proves the significance of these three categories of housing sub-markets. So the conclusions indicate the presence of variety of spatial and non-spatial housing sub-market structures in Hangzhou.(3)Based on the overall market as well as each sub-market, hedonic price models are constructed. Then the method of evaluation accuracy test is used to respectively compare the evaluation results before and after the subdivion in the same sub-market structure, as well as the overall evaluation results of the three sub-market structures. Conclusions show that evaluation results of each sub-market models after subdivision are more statistically significant than those of the overall market model before subdivision. In terms of the overall markets, the highest evaluation accuracy is reticular sub-market model (57.82%), followed by clustering sub-market model (53.02%), and finally the layer structure sub-market model (52.49%).(4)Through the construction and comparion of the traditional hedonic price model and spatial econometric model, the paper establishes the basic assessment model of Hangzhou. In the process of establishment, we find that the estimation effect of spatial econometric model is superior to that of traditional hedonic price model and SEM model is superior to SLM model. Finally, this paper corrects on the basic assessment model combining Hangzhou’s housing sub-market information and gets a set of housing price evaluation system which is suitable for Hangzhou.