The Research Of China Stock Market Time Rhythm And Stock Market Cycle Based On Theory And Positive

Shanghai Composite Index daily prices of the time series being the research object,"Zhouyi" and the Fibonacci numbers as the primary theoretical, This thesis put forward two new theories.They are stock market time rhythm and stock market cycle.The new theories not only enriched and developed the current securities investment analysis, but also had an impact on Investors’ short-term and long-term investment behavior.Above all,found the phenomenon from the stock market’89trading days,the stock market of23years history can be divided into62time rhythms, the number of the strong rising type is18,the number of the standard rising type is8, the number of the top adjustment type is10,the number of the strong decreasing type is7,the number of the t standard decreasing type is6,the number of the bottom adjustment is13.Based on stock market time rhythm,This thesis found stock market cycle.The stock market of23years history can be divided into4stock market cycles, and each cycle is divided into six to eight wave bands. The first wave band has a more substantial increasing, the second wave band has a more substantial decreasing, the other wave bands belong to adjustment wave bands. Generally,the stock market cycle’s duration is about4-8years.Next, according to the characteristics of stock market cycle’s different wave bands, This thesis made a conclusion:in the first and third wave band,we must hold stocks resolutely, in the second wave band, we must do not hold stocks resolutely, in the eighth wave band, we should prepare for holding stocks, the other wave bands,we must cautious.Finally, Looking the prospects of China’s stock market, This thesis Put forward China’s stock market cycle Ⅳ has been or is about to end, and the cycle Ⅴ has been or is about to start. The two possibilities:The stock market cycle Ⅳ has eight wave bands, the seventh wave band has one time rhythm, the eighth wave bands has one time rhythm. The Cycle Ⅳ is about to end in the beginning of August2013,this is the first possibility. The second possibility is that:The stock market cycle Ⅳ has six wave bands, the stock market cycle Ⅴ has begin from2012.12.4.After a top adjustment type,the stock market will into a bull phase.