The Real Estate Investment, Non-real Estate Investment And China Economic Growth

People concern about how to keep the national economy developing healthy and stably all the time, so the research also concentrate on economic issues of economic growth. The most concern in these studies is what factors impact on economic growth and how to impact on it. In these studies investment has always been the focus of scholars. And because in investment, real estate investment has high contribution on economic growth and pull effect on the other industries, which makes the real estate investment become a research priority.The GDP and investment data shows that in recent years it has significant correlation between real estate investment and GDP, whose the growth rate have almost consistent trend of the fluctuations. After the burst of subprime crisis in the United States, China’s economic growth slowed markedly, but economic growth remains above7.5%. According to the investment data, there is an obvious decline in non-real estate investment growth rate, the investment growth rate of some industries appeared negative growth, the real estate industry is still keeping the growth rate of more than20%. This shows that shift happened between two kinds of investment, and this shift will impact on economic growth.So our paper consider non-real estate investment and the shift between the two kinds investment which based on the previous studies of the impact of real estate investment on economic growth, and study how the three impact on economic growth.Deriving the expression of crowd-out and pulling effect by constructing the DSGE model shows that there are five factors affecting the crowd-out effect and pulling effect:effect correction parameter, time-varying parameter of the business cycle influence level, the transformation parameter of the economic cycle, GDP and the investment-capital structure factor. The investment-capital structure dominate eventually the crowd-out effect and pulling effect.We build the DSGE economic growth model containing the crowd-out and pulling effect of the investment, and then we make the simulation on the DSGE model, and the impulse response analysis. Except the traditional impulse response analysis, this paper also considers the impulse response which has a highly positive correlation.Results without considering the impact of highly correlation shows that real estate investment inhibit the economic growth, and have pulling effects on the non-real estate investment; The non-real estate investment promote economic growth, but promote inhibit the real estate investment in short run, and inhibit it in the long run. Considering the impact of highly correlation, due to the neutralization effect of the pulling and crowd-out effect of the investment, all of these effects are weakened.In this paper, the conclusion shows that it needs to adjust the investment and capital structure of the real estate investment and the non-real estate, investment to make real estate investment reasonably pull effect on economic growth, and the investment structure need to be adjusted first.The investment structure adjustment should be focused on the real estate industry. In terms of reducing the housing price, the levy of property tax is an inevitable scheme, which compress the profit space in the real estate purchase can curb real estate speculative buying effectively.In the situation of real estate demand decreasing and oversupplying of the real estate, price will come down naturally. Housing prices falling naturally lead to a decline in investment desire to make the investment return to a reasonable level.Another viable option is by improving the government’s finance to reduce housing prices. Cutting government spending can reduce the dependence on "land finance", thus reduce the land price, thereby lowering prices and real estate investment demand.In addition, the construction of low-rent housing can reduce the commodity housing demand effectively, and thus achieve the goal of lower house prices and real estate investment to.But the construction of low-rent housing should avoid the development mode of "great leap forward".