| Since 1978,the real estate industry has once become an important engine for stimulating China's economic growth.Although the real estate industry has promoted economic development,it has also caused real economic problems such as rising real estate prices and unsustainable investment in real estate development.Under this background,the extensive economic development model that relies on real estate and infrastructure investment is bound to shift to a development model that fosters domestic demand,stimulates the vitality of investment in the real sector,and has stronger endogenous growth drivers.The key to solving this problem is to clarify the transmission path of real estate investment activities in the macro economy and its influence on other macroeconomic variables,economic efficiency and resources allocation.Based on the existing theory and research both at home and abroad,as well as the core characteristics of China's real estate market and the current situation of real estate development and investment,this paper identifies the transmission mechanism of real estate development and investment affecting macro-economy at first,and then adopts the research paradigm of combining theoretical analysis with empirical research to study the effect and mechanism of real estate development investment on macroeconomic fluctuation,economic cycle,economic growth,economic efficiency and spatial allocation efficiency of resource elements.Finally,we find that:Firstly,for the economic demand side,on the one hand,real estate investment itself will increase the demand for final products and directly affect the total output;on the other hand,real estate investment can promote the development of real estate related industries,reduce the efficiency of financial system serving the real economy,squeeze out the real economy such as manufacturing industry.For the economic supply side,on the one hand,real estate development investment makes real estate factors increase,which has a direct role in promoting economic growth;on the other hand,the rapid growth of real estate investment and the increase of its share make the real estate industry occupy more credit and production factors,and total economic supply.In a word,investment activities in real estate development not only increase the short-term fluctuation of macro-economy,but also affect the long-term development of macro-economy.Secondly,through a multi-sectoral DSGE model including housing market and real estatedevelopers,this paper simulates the impact of real estate development investment on other economic variables and its endogenous transmission mechanism.We find that: Rigid demand for housing will promote the increase of real estate investment,which will improve the employment level and total output level of society by driving the development of related industries,on the other hand,promoting the rise of the price of means of production will increase the cost of real estate development and the price of real estate.To a certain extent,this will lead to the real estate investment crowding out residents' consumption and real investment.The decline in the proportion of real estate investment in GDP will lead to an increase in the proportion of production bank investment and a decrease in the proportion of household consumption.That is to say,the decline in investment in real estate development will release more resources for traditional enterprises to expand production investment,but it will also lead to a decline in the value of household assets and wealth in each period.Thirdly,we construct the SV-TVP-FAVAR model to empirically analyze the impact of real estate investment on the economic cycle and its causes in China's provinces during the survey period.Firstly,the principal component method is used to reduce the dimension of 79 selected indicators,and then three common factors are used to analyze the non-linear changes of real estate investment impact on economic fluctuation using SV-TVP-FAVAR model.This paper chooses the first quarter of 2002,the third quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2014 to represent the start-up period of real estate investment,the period of global financial crisis and the period of "new normal" of the economy,and analyses the impact of real estate investment on the cycle of economic fluctuation.We find that: during the start-up period of real estate investment,real estate investment in China shows a counter-cyclical feature to economic fluctuation;in the period of global economic crisis,the positive effect is strong,showing a significant pro-cyclical feature;in the new normal period,due to the saturation of the real estate market,real estate investment also shows economic fluctuation.Fourthly,the paper empirically studies the non-linear effect of real estate development investment on economic growth by constructing a panel threshold model with real house price as the threshold variable,and finds that the pulling effect of real estate development investment on economic growth increases with the rise of real estate price.On the other hand,real estate pricesin different locations will affect the contribution of capital and labor force to economic growth,in which the role of capital in promoting economic growth is inverted U-shaped,while the role of labor force in promoting economic growth is anti-J-shaped.Fifthly,using the data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2017,this paper empirically analyses the impact of real estate investment on economic efficiency by building a dynamic panel data model.Firstly,the fixed capital stock with variable depreciation rate is measured by the perpetuation method,and then the technical efficiency and total factor productivity index are measured by constructing stochastic frontier production function combined with labor index.The study finds that real estate investment has a positive effect on technical efficiency and total factor productivity.Sixthly,through the construction of comprehensive evaluation index system,we quantitatively evaluate the total investment value of real estate market in 30 provincial capitals and municipalities.Further,by matching the total investment value of real estate market with the actual investment situation in each city,we find that the development quality and investment potential of residential real estate in 30 provincial capitals are extremely unbalanced.The difference of real estate development quality between eastern cities is gradually narrowing,while the difference of development quality between central cities is gradually increasing,while western cities are seriously divided into two levels.When most cities invest in real estate development,they mainly focus on the potential of rising housing prices rather than the value of investment in real estate market development,which leads to the problem of over-investment in real estate in relatively backward cities.In addition,some cities with high economic development level and development potential have insufficient investment.This significant spatial mismatch effect of real estate development investment will not only lead to spatial mismatch of production factors and other resources,but also affect the unreasonable fluctuation of housing prices. |
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