A Study On The Supply-Demand Balance System Based On Continual Forecasting Of Time Series

With the ripe development of Chinese economy, Chinese consumption market presents rich and colorful in products, and turns into the oversupply buyer’s market. Inevitably, the consumption industry has to transform its development model from rapid management to lean management. How to use information system to support lean management, how to construct quick response supply chain system, and how to conciliate the conflict between out-of-stock and overstock, have become the tough problems that managers have to face.This paper begins on the demand of consumption industry. Under the framework of business operation management, the author develops a supply-demand balance system based on continual forecasting of time series. We deploy this system on some brand fashion companies. The operation practices gain remarkable results and create valuable benefits.This paper uses the research method of case study on the supply-demand balance system. By reviewing the relevant theories of sale forecasting and supply-demand balance, we elaborate the design and development of the supply-demand balance system based on continual forecasting of time series. We analyze the result and accuracy of forecasting, and its support for enterprise’s quick response strategy. In the end, we conclude some valuable methods and experiences for other enterprises.Consumption industry is competitive and seasonal mostly. Some business, like garment industry, seems to be very complex with long production cycle and multi-SKU. The supply-demand balance system applies to brand fashion companies successfully. It might apply to most of consumption industry as well. Researching on the supply-demand balance system based on continual forecasting of time series is valuable to improve operation efficiency and lean management.