Region Balance And Forcast On Supply And Demand Of China Grain

The problem of food security is an important one relating to the national economy and people's livelihood. During recent 20 years, the supply of grain has met the demand in the total amount, but the balance between regions has been broken and the contradiction between regions still remains. Considering the current situation, we need to do research on region balance of grain. It will be helpful to make a lasting security of China, to release contradiction between regions, to speed up the reform of grain circulation, and to adjust the structure of agricultural production.The purpose of this paper is to forecast the amount of grain output in the year of 2010, 2015 and 2020, to forecast the total amount of demand for grain and individual need of grain ration, grain for feed, grain for food processing, and others. This paper will make a grain balance sheet to show the amount of grain output and demand and the gap, and will give some analysis on some problems.This paper will use different ways to do forecasting. Combination forecasting model will be applied to forecast the grain production of China, in order to make the result more exact. The model which combined Cobb-Douglas production function, multiple regression model and exponential smoothing model can improve the accuracy of fix and forecast by proper weighs. By analyzing different indicators, the results shows that combination forecasting model is superior to three other models in this application. The GM(1,1)model will be applied to forecast future demand of grain ration, grain for feed. The future grain demand for food processing and seeds will be figured out according to individual annual growth rate. The other parts of grain demand will be converted according to a certain coefficient.Through the quantitative investigation and the qualitative analysis, this article draws following conclusions: The main grain region will be the growth potential region, the grain output will drop in grain sale region and maintain in grain even region, so main grain region is ought to take the heavy burden of the future's supply of grain; Grain for feed will be the main force to draw the demand of grain in more than 10 years; In main grain region grain output will be able to meet the demand in future, and the gap between output and demand will be enlarged in grain sale region.