A Study On The Influence Factors Of The Fluctuation In China’s FCPI In The Post Crisis Era

Food is base product which affect the livelihood of people，and its price mastersthe operation and development of the whole macroeconomy．As the largest nation ofgrain production and consumption，China’s food economy is influence by thesituatuion in the international market．Food price is inevitably affected by the supplyand demand．Our food output have been increasing year by year since2003，anddomestic supply is adequate．Nevertheless，the price，instead of running smoothly，rose and fell dramaticly，which suggested that there are other factors impecting theprice of food．In the new era，the operation of the domestic and internationaleconomy has become increasingly complex，and the conduction paths are moresecretive，therefore，maintaining the stability of food price in China has become thekey target of the government．Study on the factors affecting China’s food price indexplays a decisive role in grasping the focus and direction of the food regulation，improving the effctiveness of the policies，stabling the food price．On the basis of studing a large amount of relevant literature，combining thereality and data of our contry，this article dissects the main factors influencing FCPIafter the financial crisis．The research includs five sections，and the main content ofeach one is arranges as following：The first chapter is the introduction．At the very beginning，introduce theresearch background， theoretical significance and pratical siginificance， thensummarise the related aticles home and abroad，summing up the research methods inthis field，ending with the innovation and deficiency of this article．The second chaper is the theoretical analysis of the changes in consumer price index．According to the theory of supply and demand, the cobweb model, the law ofone price, monetary policy theories of affecting price and the expectations theory，analyse the influential elements of the food price index, so as to build theoreticalfoundation for later normative and empirical analysis.The third chapter is the situation and influential factors of food consumerprice． First of all，point out the present situation and trend of FCPI；secondly，analyse the possible causes of unstable price from two perspectives supply-demandand finance．There are a variety of factors affecting food prices, mainly include thegrain supply and demand, the quantitative easing monetary policy which leads to theinflow of hot money, the inflation expectations caused by CPI, the change ofexchange rate and interest rate.Chapter four is the empirical analysis on financial factors affecting China’s foodconsumption price index．On the basis of comparing and analysing the above theorywith the reality，apply the method of econometric to make empirical analysis on thefinancial factors influencing the food price index． Choose the monthly data fromJanuary2008to January2014of food consumer price index FCPI in our country，the scale of America’s monetary base，China’s general price index，the real effectiveexchange rate， one-year interest rate。By controlling China’s GDP and China’sfertilizer outputs as the factors of supply and demand, I building the error correctionmodel VECM by the listed data to find out the long-term equilibrium betweenvariables and the short-term dynamic adjustment process． The results show that theimpact on China’s food price index by financial factors are significant in the longterm, the model could astringe automatically to the long-term equilibrium level inthe short term．Chapter five is the policy choice of China’s food price in the post-crisisera．Propose the suggestions from two aspects: micro and governmental deck．Fromthe micro level，it is vital to improve the capacity of food production as well as the technical level，moreover the financial institutions should innovate their service tosupport the development of food industry；from the government level，the first thingto do is to stabilizing the grain farming area，secondly，handling the flow ofinternational hot money, the third thing is to build up an open and transparent pricerelease system，the fourth is to enrich regulation means and methods，finally，promote the reform of interest rate liberalization．...