Effect Of Bank Credit Expansion Of Chinese Real Estate Price Bubble

Since1998, since the reform of the housing system, China ’s real estate industry isdeveloping rapidly, while real estate prices continue to rise, which triggered a series ofeconomic and social problems. Discussion about the causes of rising real estate prices andthe existence of the real estate market began to price bubbles more cause for concern. Asthe real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, requires a lot of financial support, inChina based on indirect financing is still dominated financial system, bank credit to thereal estate industry has a very important effect. Meanwhile, several real estate bubble inworld history events proved that there is a clear correlation between bank credit expansionand real estate price bubble.This paper studies the role of bank credit expansion that affect the real estate pricebubble in the carding and abroad on the basis of existing research literature, the first bankcredit expansion for the real estate price bubble influence mechanism is analyzedtheoretically. Through China ’s real estate price bubble situation measure, indicating theprice bubble in the real estate market and the existence of the extent of the real estate pricebubble was quantified by calculating the coefficient of real estate price bubble select therelevant indicators. On this basis, the paper established a VAR model for bank creditexpansion and influence the impact on the real estate price bubble in the empiricalanalysis, and put forward relevant policy recommendations on mitigation of real estateprice bubble based on the research results. This paper is divided into six parts:The first part is an introduction, mainly on the background and significance of this,the relevant research literature abroad the sort, for the main contents of this paper,research methods and innovative research process used are described; second part of theconcept and scope of this study were to define the mechanism and impact of bank credit tothe real estate price bubble theoretical analysis; third part, the Chinese real estate marketsituation and the credit scale descriptive analysis, the use of indicators analysis method toanalyze the1998-2012years, China’s real estate price bubble in existence, results showthat China’s real estate market since2000the prevalence of price bubbles. On this basis,the proposed real estate price bubble coefficient calculation methods; Part IV,2002to2012using quarterly data, as well as by Granger cointegration test conducted on thecorrelation between bank credit and real estate price bubble between the test. EstablishVAR model, and by the impulse response function analysis of the influence of bank creditand the impact on the real estate price bubble in the empirical analysis. The results showthat: the real estate industry real estate prices Granger cause credit bubble. And either theshort or long term, the real estate industry, real estate price bubble credit positive effectexisted. The fifth part, the text on the basis of previous research, strengthen theregulation of the real estate market from the credit scale and structure, create a personalcredit system and the real estate price bubble three aspects of monitoring and early warningmechanisms put forward relevant policy recommendations on mitigation of real estateprice bubble. Section VI summarizes the main conclusions of this study and proposefurther research prospects...