The Research On The Relationship Between Bank Credit And Real Estate Price In China

The real estate industry quickly enters a period of rapid development,becomes a pillar industry of China's national economy and plays an important role in the development of China's economy after the implementation of housing system reform in 1998.At the same time,the continuous loose monetary policy after the financial crisis also leads a large number of funds to flowing into the market of real estate,therefore the real economy is faced with a serious challenge of “transforming the economy from substantial to fictitious”.Commercial house,as a necessity of people's life,has become the focus of people's attention,and the government has taken measures to control the price of real estate for many times.However,the price of real estate continues to rise,which exceeds the purchasing power of ordinary residents.The market of real estate has a large tendency of bubbles and risk accumulation,to a certain extent,which has a negative impact on the whole society.On the other hand,as the main channel of monetary policy transmission,credit channel has a great impact on the expansion of scale of the development loan in real estate development loans and personal housing loans.This paper attempts to study the interaction mechanism between the scale of bank credit and the price of real estate,and to study the interaction between the supply of real estate loans and the demand for loans.Based on these,it puts forward relevant measures and suggestions.Firstly,this paper reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad.According to these literature,most scholars at home and abroad focus on how to allocate loans among different enterprises,especially domestic scholars focus on how to make credit rationing between state-owned enterprises(including large-scale enterprises)and small,medium-sized enterprises.Moreover most scholars think bank credit loans have a unilateral effect on real estate price.Secondly,this paper studies the theory that bank credit channel is the main channel of monetary policy transmission in China,and finds that it meets three basic preconditions: first,China's monetary policy is non-neutral;second,the loans and bonds of China's commercial banks cannot be completely replaced;third,the bank loans and other external capital sources of the enterprise are irreplaceable.Thirdly,this paper focuses on the theoretical study of the relationship between the scale of bank credit and the price of real estate,and finds that there is a mechanism of mutual influence and promotion between the real estate price and bank credit in China.It also points out that there is rationing effect in China's credit market,and there is accumulation effect of anticipating between credit market and real estate market.Different from the traditional credit rationing theory that only focuses on the microlevel credit rationing mechanism of enterprises,the rationing effect of credit market proposed in this paper focuses on how bank credit is distributed between real estate market and other industries of real economy.The results show that commercial banks are more willing to allocate credit funds to the real estate market when the expected return in the real estate market is higher than that in other real economy industries.The accumulation effect of anticipating between the bank credit market and the real estate market mainly studies the interaction among the behaviors of the three main bodies of banks,enterprises and residents.It finds that under the expectation of the three main bodies,when the real estate price is expected to rise,the real estate development loan scale of commercial banks and the individual housing loan scale and the real estate price will appear Spiral upward transmission mechanism,which leads to bubbles in the real estate market.Under the expectation of three main bodies,when prices of real estate rises,there will be a spiral transmission mechanism among the scale of commercial real estate development loans,the scale of personal housing loans and prices of real estate,which will lead to bubbles in the real estate market.Fourthly,this paper analyzes the background,expansion process and reasons of the real estate bubbles in Japan,and finds that the expansion of bank credit scale is an important factor for the expansion and collapse.Then taking real estate bubbles in Japan as an example,it explores how to deal with the relationship between the credit market and the real estate market in China,so that China's real estate industry can develop well in the future.Finally,this paper makes an empirical analysis in order to verify thees theoretical point of views.In the empirical analysis,this paper uses a series of measurement methods such as cointegration test,error correction model,Granger causality test and impulse response function,and bases on 56 groups of quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2018,then it analyzes the interaction between China's real estate price and the bank's credit scale,and explains the empirical research results.On the whole,whether in the short term or in the long term,the real estate price and the scale of bank credit can influence each other.Specifically,the cointegration test shows that in the long run,there is a stable equilibrium relationship between real estate price and bank credit,when the scale of bank credit increases by 1%,the real estate price will increase by 0.178%;the error correction model shows that in the short term,there is a positive interaction between bank credit and real estate price;Granger causality test shows that in the long run,there is a causal relationship between them;the results of impulse response analysis show that in the short term,the expansion of bank credit can promote the rise of house prices.According to the research conclusions,there are some suggestions in order to maintain the steady and healthy development of China's real estate industry,avoid bigger bubbles or bubble burst,including adopting prudent monetary policy,effectively regulating the supply-demand relationship of the real estate market,adjusting the scale and structure of real estate credit,fully implement the policy of policy implementation for the city and improving the housing security system.