| With the support of financial system, the real estate market in China has surged for many years, the investment, trading and loan scale keep going up these years.Meanwhile, the real estate market prices rise without a pause and totally depart from the income level of household, to some extent, which has formed price bubble and affected the financial system security, the political and scholars have paid fully attention to this issue. However, to study from the perspective of land leasehold system, it is the systematic risk which caused by the contradiction between real estate asset and its inner value poses a significant threat to the financial system.Because China implements the system of state-owned land, Meanwhile, isolating the urban land ownership and the right to use, and granting the state-owned land use right at a certain age, these measures make commercial land use right value of the investment is less than the intrinsic value of land assets. With the reduction of transfer period, commercial land use right value of the investment is decreasing year by year until the expiration of the time in the transfer approaches zero. It also means selling land intrinsic value of real estate assets synchronization approaching close to zero when the land transfer deadline approaching. In the long run, any commodity prices should be determined by its intrinsic value. Goods on the real estate market are also like this. Under the leasehold system, its price should be decreased with the diminishing value. However, the reality of the real estate market is that with the economy continuing to improve and the support of the financial system, the trading price of the stock of housing and new housing is not subject to the constraint of the land use right term and is continuing to rise, a divergence is produced between real estate market prices and its intrinsic value of assets.In this paper, we put forward a concept of the remaining term of equivalent for land use rights, which is based on the analysis of the land use right value and the change law of commercial value of the asset, and from the angle of whole commercial housing market to study the change law of assets value of the stock in commercial housing market. It means in the term of transferring the land use right, with the development of social economy and the growing demand for the real estate, the real estate prices will rise for a period. In pace with reduction of the rest transferring remaining term of equivalent, the rise of the real estate price will slow down gradually and decline in the end, until the price close to zero when the deadline of transferring is coming. In the transferring period, the higher price rise and the longer duration in the preliminary, the price in the late will decline greater and the fall speed will be faster, as the corresponding risk is greater. And when transferring land supply increment continue increase, the remaining duration of equivalent of land will fall down gently; when transferring land supply increment continue decrease, the remaining duration of equivalent of land will fall rapidly. This implies that the value of commercial housing market asset will enter into integrity devaluation term quickly which always means the systemic risk of real estate market will emerge in a short time.In our country, due to the land use right of commercial housing is still in the first half of a complete transferring cycle(70years), the influence of remaining duration of equivalent for land use rights to the price of real estate asset is difficult to detect under the land leasehold system. Market participants have neither clear rational knowledge nor real perceptual cognition.Hence, market participants, including macro policy decision makers and practitioners are overvalued the asset value of the stock of commercial house, and according to this to trade and invest. It is this type of group irrational behavior of the market participants, accumulates the systemic risk of real estate, as well impacts the security of the financial system.To test the relationship between the fluctuations of real estate price and financial security, the author build one financial security index (FSI) by the method of factor analysis which can make a comprehensive reflection of China’s financial system, according to the reality, we find that it can describe the reality of our financial security. On the basis, we collect the quarterly data in China, ranging from2000to2013, to test the relationship between the fluctuations of real estate price and financial security. The results are as follows:First, the fluctuations of real estate prices exacerbate the fluctuations of China’s financial security conditions, affecting the stability of the financial system. Second, the volatility of financial security index can significantly affect the fluctuations of real estate price, the contribution rate reaches75%in variance decomposition table from HP, we believe that changes in interest rates, changes in monetary policy and the stability of the financial system are the causes of the fluctuations of real estate prices. Third, the land leasehold system’s impact on the real estate prices is not yet clear, the empirical results have shown the significant negative relationship between real estate prices and financial security. If the impact of land leasing on the market appears, real estate assets will be at the risk of overall devaluation, the negative impact of price volatility on the financial security will be immeasurable.According to the theoretical analysis and the empirical results, this thesis puts forward the policy suggestion that the leasehold of one-time charge of the land transferring fees for70years should be replaced by the system of annual-rent that the land-transferring fees is charged each year. The purpose of this policy suggestion is to change the trend that the intrinsic value and the market prices of the commercial residential building assets are separated from each other, and to eliminate the systematic risk of the devaluation of the commercial residential building assets under the land leasehold system fundamentally. At the same time, this thesis gives some relevant suggestions about the establishment of the index system of Chinese financial security and the early warning mechanism of financial crisis. |
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