Export Trade Risk Measurement And Its Relationship With Export Trade Pattern Study

Since reform and opening up, the export trade has made considerabledevelopment, especially since2000, China’s manufacturing exports has beenimplemented for many years of rapid growth, and become the world manufacturingmain producer and exporter, has caused by this kind of trade integration to strengthentrade gains and cost problem has become a focus of academic circles. In particular,the relationship between trade openness and trade volatility has caused great attention.At the same time, the post-crisis era, China is undergoing a transformation of foreigntrade development mode and change, strategic transformation of foreign trade is adifficult system engineering, effectively to monitor the strategic transformationprocess of foreign trade, foreign strategic transformation in China may encounter inthe process of the transformation of the rigidity risk, the international market risk,industry risk effectively various risks identification, the corresponding risk evaluationindex system and evaluation system was constructed for timely monitoring is veryimportant.On this basis, this paper developed a simple theoretical model, when the industryoutput volatility exist differences, trade patterns not only decided by the comparativeadvantage is driven by risk aversion motivation at the same time. Countries will adoptdiversified export strategy, to avoid certain industry output in adverse impact. Outputfrom this model, we found that in the presence of a risk industry, diversificationdegree and the strength of the comparative advantage there is a u-shaped relationship.If a country’s comparative advantage exist in the risk of sector, the country willcomplete specialization in the department. A country if the risk department ofcomparative advantage is strong then the country will probably think ignorerisk-averse, and the pursuit of higher returns on risk department. If a country only hasthe comparative advantage of moderate intensity, is the country’s best exports will bediversification strategy. Second, using industry level of output and trade internationalpanel data, build and analyze one of the country’s export trade structural risk measuremethod, and analyzed the conventional macroeconomic variables affect a country’sexport trade risks. Then, from the perspective of empirical analysis, respectively, byadopting the method of parameter and nonparametric methods, on the level ofdecentralization a country exports u-shaped relationship with the strength of the comparative advantage has carried on the empirical research, the research resultsshow that no matter what estimate method, a u-shaped relationship is significant,which shows the export model similar to the portfolio characteristics of mean squareanalysis. Next, will be separated from the multinational data in China, from the Angleof export trade risks summarized trade characteristics and the existing problems inChina. Finally, in view of the above research, on the basis of risk identification andmeasurement, draw lessons from experience the results of the analysis, put forward tobuild a comprehensive macro to the micro level of risk prevention and reductionmeasures system of the basic ideas and policy Suggestions.