An Analysis On International Soybean Market And Countermeasures Of China

Soybean is not only the important crops in the world and it is also the world’simportant economic crop. Soybean is widely used in food processing, feed processing,industrial raw materials, health care and other fields. Soybean’s wide range of usagemakes countries around the world increase the demand for soybean, especially in China.According to the U.S. department of agriculture, according to data, since2002, Chinahas12consecutive years as the world’s largest soybean importer. From2012to2013,imports of Chinese soybean have reached63million tons. From2013to2014, Chinesesoybean imports reached all-time high of67.59million tons, up7.3%from a yearearlier. At the same time, China’s soybean production is12.6million tons of annualdeclines from2012/2013to2013/2014annual12million tons, down5%year-on-year.That is to say the domestic soybean supply cannot satisfy the needs of Chinese rapidgrowth of soybean. Accompanied by China’s increasing demand for soybean iscontinuous reduction of Chinese soybean supply. Concerning the balance of supply anddemand in the international market, domestic soybean dependence continues to rise.International soybean market volatility is not only directly affect the stability of thesoybean market in China, it also affect domestic residents’ food consumption, foreigntrade of agricultural products, food and livestock production indirectly. Therefore,through analysis and forecast on the international soybean market, the author hasmastered the regular pattern of international soybean market fluctuations and trends,which helps me to see the future direction of soybean market in China. It is alsoimportant to stabilize domestic soybean market prices, control the overall price level ofagricultural products, stabilize residents’ daily life and prevent inflation. It is alsosignificant for policy making on soybean production in China, the improvement of thereserve system and import policy planning.Most scholars major in international soybean market focused on short-termresearch. Research on long-term development trends in the international soybean marketis rear. Few studies on long-term international soybean market trends were publishedbefore2009, they can not reflect the latest developments of international soybeanmarket. The innovation of this paper is reflected in the following items: On the basis ofthe newest data from FAO, the World Bank and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the author analysis20years’ international soybean market prices and factors impactinginternational soybean market. Through factor analysis and multiple regression modelthe author make analysis and forecasting about changes in long-term trends in theinternational soybean market.This paper bases on economic cycle theory, supply and demand theory andinternational market price formation theory, I adopt theoretical analysis and empiricalanalysis approach to analyses fluctuations of international soybean market and thecauses affect international soybean market. I conclude the general rules of internationalsoybean market fluctuations and soybean prices on the basis of the analysis of thefactors to predict long-term trends on the international soybean market. Finally, I madesome recommendations for us to tackle international soybean market price fluctuations.Due to my ability and time limitations, there is not enough data collected tocomprehensively grasp international macroeconomic situation. The analysis of theinternational soybean market is not deep enough. Therefore, in future study and work, Iwill continue to work on the international soybean market analysis and research, andfurther enrich the relevant information, tracking changes in the international soybeanmarket and research on analyses causes of affecting international soybean market.