Research On Soybean Commodities Price At Home And Abroad Transmission Mechanism In The Background Of Food Finance

The abnormal fluctuations in international food prices have been caused by the globalization of food and the deepening degree of financialization in recent years.Soybeans are commodities with higher levels of global trade liberalization.At present,40% of soybean production is used for export.The proportion of arbitrage transactions in the main structure of participants in the grain derivatives market,which was shown by data on futures market positions has increased year by year.Firstly,the research phase is divided into 2006-2009,2010-2013,and 2014-2017 according to the fluctuation rules of the soybean market price.Secondly,the cointegration test,VAR model,impulse response,and variance decomposition are used at the mean level.During the research period of the research method,the spot price conduction direction,conduction path,and contribution degree were used;the direction,path and intensity of the fluctuation conduction between the futures and the spot price of the BEKK-GARCH model were used on the variance level;finally,the price control of soybean in China was combined with different periods.The policy analyzes the results and gives corresponding recommendations.Research shows that: 1.Between 2006 and 2009,during the period of international food crisis,China mainly used trade policies to regulate the supply of food and introduced a series of measures to stimulate imports and restrict exports.During this period,the domestic and foreign markets were highly related.This is mainly reflected by the characteristics of the international futures market transmitting to the domestic futures market and then to the domestic spot market,while the fluctuation of the domestic futures market is not only affected by the international futures market but also affected by the fluctuation of the domestic spot price;2.Between 2010 and 2013,with the national temporary purchase and storage policy,the purchase price at this stage continued to rise,but the purchase volume gradually decreased with the impact of imported soybeans and the shrinking of domestic production capacity.The government purchased domestic soybeans at a price higher than the market price and demanded sales at a smooth price.However,as low-priced foreign soybeans flooded into the domestic market,it finally created a situation in which “domestic soybeans stored in warehouse and foreign soybeans entered the market”.In this period,Affected by the national regulatory policies,the domestic spot market's response to the domestic futures market is not as sensitive to the country's futures market.It mainly presents the volatility spillover effect from the domestic spot market to the domestic futures market;3.The adjustment of the national policy between 2014 and 2017,The adoption of the soybean target price policy will more effectively return the price formation mechanism to the market.At this stage,the main performance is that the international futures market has a regulatory effect on the domestic market,and the domestic market gradually has a mutual influence and guidance relationship.The domestic spot market also has a certain impact on the international futures market.This article proposes policy recommendations from the following aspects: First,improve the construction of domestic soybean spot market,increase the pace of national grain reserve construction,and lay the foundation for the future price discovery function of the futures market;Second,improve the construction of domestic soybean futures market and reduce direct government Intervention;Third,optimize the planting structure and industrial layout of China's agricultural products,use the grain financial market to manage price risks,moderately monitor the financial markets,and avoid excessive speculation.