| The prices fluctuations in the commodity housing market suffer from the psychological behavior of market participants. It is difficult to use pure rational Expected utility theory to analyze, need to combine with prospect theory of behavioral decision for analysis. This article is under the funding of National Natural Science Foundation Project "Urban Real Estate dynamic and expected evaluation model research" chaired by Professor Zhang Suodi, based on the expected utility theory and prospect theory we analyse the behavior decision-making and rationality of the market participants in the commodity housing market, and establish G-M model of commercial housing market in Taiyuan, analyze and test the decision-making behavior of market participants, and obtained the following conclusions:(1)The paper explain some behavioral phenomena in real estate market by using prospect theory. illustrates the phenomenon of volume and price in the same direction and disposition effects which can not be explained by rationally expected utility theory According to the prospect theory, when housing prices soar, people are sensitive to the presence of diminishing revenue and loss aversion effect psychologically, decided not to continue to hold, and quickly thrown. When housing prices decline. because of the psychologically diminishing sensitivity to losses, loss aversion people continue to hold, escape the reality of given loss.(2)According to the reference point effect and using the G-M model analysis transactions seller in Taiyuan residential market, and found that in face of potential losses the transaction price of sellers in the market increase43%-45%relative to the expected loss of them, while in the face of potential earnings price promte only21%-23%, indicating the existence of loss aversion behavior of sellers in the market and " disposition effect " phenomenon, verify the explaination of the prospect theory for people decision-making behavior in residential market. |
PDF Full Text Request