Research On The Individual Decision-making Problems Under Uncertainty

The research on the investment decision making under risk and uncertainty is always a hot issue in the field of decision making research.Studying on the investment decision making problem was initially expected value theory,including mathematical expectation maximization theory,expected utility theory,the subjective expected utility theory,then it is generally expected utility theory.Over a period of time,it is a turning point for the development of decision-making theory,the theory of "prospect theory" as the representative of the non-expected utility theory.But now the decision-making theory research mainly revolves around the several controversial points.In this paper,we used theoretical analysis,system analysis,empirical analysis,case study,etc.,complementing the existing decision-making theory,from the perspective of V.H.VROOM's incentive theory to lay a solid theoretical foundation for the decision-making theory.Theory of Evidence Dempster-Shafer is used to analyze the uncertain information and the emotional influence of the decision maker's is analyzed.On the basis of research,the utility function is established,which is a relative expected utility model based on the D-S theory,which believed that the decision making depends on the two dimensions of utility and probability and explains the paradox phenomenon and the real decision behavior that the traditional decision theories can not explain.D-S relative expected utility model mainly has four aspects of innovation:First,the decision model establishes the reference standard.The reference standard is the matrix of the three vectors in the outer,inner and time dimensions.Second,it supplies a new way of dealing with uncertain information.The way of using D-S theory to deal with fuzzy information can be more suitable for the representation of the "uncertain" or "do not know".Third,concerning the expression of the subjectivity of decision makers,this paper carries on the theoretical research and empirical research from the perspective of the frame effect and the irrational emotion.Fourth,The model is used in the form of a piecewise function.Because of the influence of the frame effect and the irrational emotion,decision makers at the relative effectiveness zero point may happen the risk preference reversal phenomenon,using a piecewise function to express this phenomenon.Basing on the incentive logic of VROOM,relative expected utility model has explained the two classic paradoxes of decision-making and solved the travel route selection problem.However,it also has some deficiencies and defects in decision-making applications,and needs to be improved and supplemented.But this article provides new theoretical basis and research method for researching on decision-making under uncertain problems,which has a certain theoretical significance and application value.