The Research Of The Formation And Management Strategy Of Our Country’s Inflation Expectation

Base on quarterly data2001Q2(2001.03~2001.05) to2012Q1(2011.12~2012.02) ofConsumers Saving Survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China. This paper figuresout consumers’ inflation expectation using C-P method. After examining the quality ofour country’s consumers’ inflation expectation, we find it not complete rational.Then, we use SVAR model to further study the effect factors and formationmechanism of inflation expectation. Factors such as CPI, asset price, aggregate demandand other macroeconomic variables, also, the central bank information disclosure andactual intervention are all included to analyze their effects to the inflation expectationusing the impulse response chart. This paper concludes that our country’s consumers’inflation expectation suffers huge change with CPI and the housing price index, and weshould pay attention to fluctuation of these two indexes, aiming at providing a goodmacro economic environment. The central bank information disclosure has shorter timelag in conducting consumers’ inflation expectation, while the interest rate tool has greaterincidence than information disclosure in the long run. So, we should use informationdisclosure and actual intervention in a combination way to anchoring the inflationexpectation in the short and long term.Then, the paper takes questionnaire survey to part of young residents, and we finddaily consumer prices, oil price, the past prices and trends, money supply, level ofeconomic development, housing price and official information disclosure are importantfactors effecting consumers’ inflation expectation. Further, we conduct the logistic modelbased on the survey data. It shows that inflation expectation level and stickiness of therespondents are not very significant in demography sense of heterogeneity, but to thebelief of central bank’s credibility, gender gap is quite significant.Finally, we make several pointed references of managing the inflation expectation.Such as setting up and improving the high frequency monitoring system of inflationexpectation; keeping a proper scale of money supply and the liquidity; implementing theinflation targeting regime; improving the effectiveness of the central bank informationdisclosure and reputation and so on.