An Empirical Study Of Inflation Expectation,Inflation And Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Promoting healthy economic growth and maintaining price stability are the two main goals of macroeconomic regulation and control.They are interrelated,mutually restrictive and mutually reinforcing.How to maintain the basic stability of the price level in the context of promoting healthy economic growth is an issue that all central banks need to think about.Inflation expectations play a crucial role in determining the price level,and will become actual inflation to a certain extent,leading to macroeconomic fluctuations.Therefore,studying inflation expectations is of great significance for macroeconomic stability.This paper first systematically combs the theory of inflation expectation.In the process of combing,many studies at home and abroad have shown that inflation expectations do not fully meet the assumption of rational expectations,have obvious adaptive characteristics,and then function as inflation expectations.The form has been set.Then,the traditional Keynesian IS-LM-PC model is extended from the perspective of inflation expectations,and the inflation expectation function is introduced.In order to understand how the changes in inflation expectations will affect the macro economy,and how to regulate the macro economy.This paper establishes the SVARMA model based on China's macroeconomic data,and uses the impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the effects of various macroeconomic policies.The empirical results show that:(1)IS shock is the main driving force of China's macroeconomic growth.When stimulating economic growth,it mainly considers expansionary fiscal policy,but must also consider the impact of IS shock on price fluctuations.(2)The monetary policy of adjusting the money supply and the policy of regulating inflation expectations can effectively reduce the inflation rate while avoiding adverse effects on actual output,but the specific strength and time are different.(3)When used in conjunction with expansionary fiscal policies,the policy effect of regulating inflation expectations is better than the policy of increasing money supply.