The Real Estate Industry Fluctuation Analysis Based On CGE Model

In recent years, the real estate industry has been regarded as pillar industry in the whole national economy. Because of the high correlation between real estate and other industries, it can lead to the development of upstream and downstream industries. The real estate industry has been the investment hot areas among various departments, including the government, enterprise and family. But in the process of rapid growth, high house prices make ordinary families a heavy burden on his back. In this paper, the computable general equilibrium model is adopted to the quantitative analysis about the fluctuations of the real estate industry. The industries of national economy are divided into nine departments. After the research on the range of related macroeconomic indicators which have changed along with the price, supply and demand in the real estate industry departments. Then we analyze the impact on the economic system. The study found the following conclusions.Firstly, the rise of the real estate price has positive effects on the output of all industries of the national economy other than the services, while the drop of real estate prices have a negative impact. Real estate prices can effectively promote economic growth, increase GDP and investment, but also will cause inflation. For employment, household income and consumption, import and export it have a negative impact.Secondly, All the departments of the national economy has obvious increase when the real estate supply increases. And the decrease of the real estate supply has obvious negative impact on other departments.Thirdly, real estate demand will increase the national economy output in a wide range of industries, especially mining and manufacturing. The demand for real estate will have inhibition to the output of other industries. And the positive effect is greater than the negative effect. Fourthly, the fluctuations of the real estate industry have extensive influence on national economy and people’s life. But the impact on national economy and people’s life is not symmetrical. The positive effect is greater than the negative effect.