Modeling And Application Of Electric Power Computable General Equilibrium Model

With the economic development, the government will put forward many macroeconomic control policies to ensure economic growth, because the electricity is very related to economy, these polices will affect the electric power industry directly or indirectly, it is very necessary for policy makers and the leaders in electric industry to know the affects. On the other hand, there are some electricity shortages or surpluses in the past years, which show the uncoordinated developments between the electricity and economy, therefore in order to promote the coordinated growth between them, we should forcast the growthes of economy and electricity and then do electric planning exactly.Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, the author builds an electric power computable general equilibrium (EPCGE) model, it can offer a method to evaluate the impact of policy and to promote the coordinated developments between economy and electricity, it can also provide an effective method to electric power economics research. The paper includes seven chapters.In chapter one, the GE and CGE theory are introduced firstly, some CGE models are also introduced and then the differences between CGE model, IO (input-output) model and economics model, in the end of this chapter, some disputes are introduced.In chapter two, EPCGE model is introduced in detail, including the modeling principia, the structure of EPCGE, the platform and the development procedure. The author disaggregate electric sector into four subsectors: thermal power sector, hydropower sector, nuclear power sector and other electric power sector.In chapter there, the SAM is introduced in detail, including the basic structure of SAM, the balancing and updating method of SAM, the procedure of establishing SAM and the calibration of some parameters in EPCGE model. The author puts forward a hybrid methed consisting of RAS and CE to updating SAM and according to 2002 input-output table, a 2002 SAM is established.Chapter four is a case study for carbon tax policy modeling. The author adds carbon tax and welfare variables into EPCGE model, by a comparative static analysis, the impacts of carbon tax policy on economy and electricity demand are analyzed, including impacts on sectoral electricity consumptions and household consumptions.Chapter five is another case study for demand side management (DSM) policy modeling. The author introduces a variable of DSM funds and the formula to calculate it, then by a comparative static analysis either, the impacts of establishing DSM funds on the economy and electricity consumption are also analyzed. Chapter six is also a case study for mid-long term electricity demand modeling. By semi-recursive dynamic way, the author analyzes the path of economic and electric growth to 2020, including sectoral electricity demands and structure of the demands at different key stages.Chapter seven is the summary of the whole paper, the author also introduces five aspects in which our study should be improved, such as establishing an EPCGE model with imcompelete competitive mechanism, EPCGE model with electricity generation and transmission, multi-region EPCGE model, complete dynamic model, updating of SAM.