Research On Impact Of Real Estate Cycle On Risk Of Residential Mortgage Loan Defaults In Commercial Bank

In recent years, the real estate developers pour increasing investments into the housing market and it presents a wonderful prospect. This phenomenon attributes the commercial Bank in our country, because it plays a pivotal role. However, single financing channel is the bottleneck in the process of development of Chinese commercial Banks and this will push them into the forefront of the financial storm.As for the current situation in our country, the housing mortgage loan has its special characteristics, such as low risk, high profit. So the commercial Banks always want to become the participants of housing market. By the end of2012, personal housing mortgage loan issued by the commercial Banks has reached more than three trillion and it growing fast. At the same time, because of the increasing personal housing mortgage loan, large financial institutions in national provinces are facing the security risks like creeping non-performing loan ratio. Also, the potential risks are gradually revealed.The research on the impact of real estate cycle on the risk of residential mortgage loan defaults in the commercial bank has made some achievements in the academic world, and this paper refers and summarizes the relevant research. Further, this paper also gives the detailed elaboration on the theory of real estate cycles, examines the periodic characteristics of residential mortgage loan in the cyclical fluctuations, studied the mechanism of formation of the real estate market cyclical fluctuations and its influence factors. Also this article uses many comprehensive methods, including the theory of finance, economics and some relevant management knowledge. And it also gives objective analysis of the relationship between the risk of mortgage loan default in the commercial bank and the real estate market fluctuations. Empirical analysis on the risk of mortgage loan default in the commercial bank received from periodic fluctuation in the housing market. We also learned some methods about how to prevent and reduce the risk of mortgage loan default. Combined with the actual situation of China, we also need to learn how to control the risk of mortgage loan default.we can get some useful solutions from the macroscopic and microscopic angles, including strengthen risk identification ability of the commercial banks, strengthen the real-time regulation of personal housing mortgage loan and strengthen the implementation control on risk of default, the implementation of housing mortgage loan securitization, establishing and perfecting the government guarantee and insurance system, improve the policy of monetary, and improve the price mechanism, etc.