Study On Real Estate Loan Risk Of Commercial Banks In China

Since the housing reform in 1998,real estate prices have continued to rise.During this period,commercial banks have provided large amounts of financial support for the real estate industry and have also obtained high profits from the real estate industry.As China’s real estate market started relatively late,the government adopted various policies to ensure the normal operation of the real estate market.In the long run,real estate control policies are indeed conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market,but in the short term,especially in recent years,real estate control policies Promptly introduced,all kinds of "slam brake","big push" control policies,so that the real estate market development is fluctuating,coupled with real estate policies to relax when commercial banks real estate credit expansion,giving commercial banks real estate loans risk hidden dangers.Once real estate prices fall sharply,commercial banks must become risk transfer targets.Therefore,researching commercial bank real estate loan risk from the perspective of real estate regulation and control policy is not only important for commercial banks to take precautions,but also for effective prevention and control of risks and it also has important theoretical and practical significance.This article takes commercial bank real estate loan risk as the research object,based on the perspective of China’s real estate control policy,in order to explore ways to more effectively prevent and control commercial bank real estate loan risk.This article is based on combing the real estate regulatory policies over the years,studying the impact of real estate regulatory policies on the development of the real estate market,commercial banks to the risk of commercial bank real estate loans,and explore the real estate regulatory policies affecting commercial banks real estate loan risk transmission mechanism.On this basis,the paper selected 10 commercial banks from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2016 as the real estate development loan non-performing loan rate and personal mortgage loan non-performing loan ratio as the explanatory variables for empirical analysis,using panel data to quantitatively analyze real estate The linear correlation between price,real estate loan interest rate and commercial bank real estate loan risk,anddraws the following conclusions:When real estate policies are relaxed,due to the increase in real estate prices and the decline in loan interest rates,the personal loan mortgage loan non-performing loans rate in commercial bank real estate loans rises,and commercial bank personal mortgage loan risks increase;The rise in real estate prices,the decrease in non-performing loan ratios for commercial bank real estate development loans,and the decline in loan interest rates have led to an increase in non-performing loan ratios for commercial bank real estate development loans.Therefore,the impact of real estate control policies on commercial bank development of loan risks is uncertain.At present,the development of China’s real estate market is still affected by the real estate control policies.The risk of commercial bank real estate loans is closely related to the development of the real estate market.Therefore,using economic measures to regulate the real estate market operation and establish a stable and long-term real estate control policy for commercial banks to prevent and control real estate loans Risk is crucial.In addition,commercial banks should also pay close attention to the changes in the real estate industry and strengthen the review of loans before lending,so as to prevent risks before they arise.