The Research On Investment Benefit Analysis And Risk Control Of The Metro Vehicle Project In CD Area

The conflict between the people travel and urban transport is increasingly prominent following the development of social economy, the increasingly improvement of people’s living standard, the acceleration of urbanization process, the continuous expansion of city size as well as the sustained growth of city population in recent years. With its unique advantages of large traffic volume, low pollution, low noises, low energy consumption, high speed, low cost, small footprint, comfortable and all-weather running etc., the urban mass transit is becoming the priority to the development of transportation modes in China and other countries.The construction of urban mass transit is increasingly popular in China, numerous domestic and foreign experts and scholars have has profound researches on the urban mass transit projects. While the project for urban mass transit equipment-the vital carrier of urban transportation-has rarely been researched. As a key public product, the characteristics of the urban mass transit like large investment, long payback period and high operating loss risk etc. have significant impact on the main investment decision, the existence of such uncertainty carries risks to the investment project of urban mass transit equipment. Together with the stringent restriction on the access to the urban mass transit projects and the overcapacity of the urban mass transit equipment industry in China, it is inevitable to carry out profound research on the investment to the urban mass transit equipment projects.This thesis, by setting the example of the rail transport equipment investment project in CD city as example, mainly with project investment environment as its start point, through the estimation to the project investment, financing, income, cost, profit and cash flow, assessed and demonstrated the feasibility of the urban mass transit equipment project investment by analyzing the project investment from the aspects as economic benefits, social benefits and environmental benefits; moreover, it carried out risk analysis to the project both quantitatively and qualitatively, with the quantitative analysis mainly on the project breakeven analysis and sensitivity analysis, and the qualitative analysis mainly on the market risk, technologic risk, operating risk and engineering risk; finally, it put forward suggestions for project risk control in a move to minimize the project risk.Main jobs of the Thesis are:1. Search for relevant references and define the outline and ideas for the Thesis;2. Collect the research information in the early stage of the project investment, introduce the investment background of the project, focusing on the social economy general status in the investment region and the backgrounds of stakeholders;3. Based on the project investment size, estimate the financial data, analyze project investment return, focusing on the analysis of the financial investment, financing, and economic indicators, as well as the description on the social and environmental benefits of the project;4. Carry out analysis on the potential risks of the project by means of quantitative and qualitative analysis;5. Based on the risk analysis, propose effective initiatives for the governing of the risks so as to minimize the project investment risks;6. Conclude the project investment analysis.The investment benefits analysis and the risk control study of the urban mass transit equipment project in this Thesis can be a reference for the investment of domestic and foreign similar projects so as to provide better information support to the decision makers, control effectively the project investment risk and maximize the project investment returns.