Research On Option Risk Evaluation In Multi-stage Tourism Investment Project

Tourism construction has been important for national strategy. Country accelerates thespeed at developing all kinds of scenic spot，tourism recreation areas，such as theme parks，tourist hotel and other tourism investment projects. Tourism investment projects havebecome the core. However，the complexity of project investment decisions brings manyproblems. The blind investment decisions make some investment projects fail，lead toserious economic losses. Compared to the traditional evaluation methods of investment,real option evaluation method takes into account the impact of uncertainty on the project.The results of real option evaluation are closer to results of actual investment. However,with the development of the theory and practice of real option, the defects of real optiongradually appear. For example, policymaker’s personal experience and ability can notsatisfy to realize the value of option and the multi-stage option evaluation under dynamic.External factors affect the realization of option value in investment. So that whenpolicymakers use real option method to evaluate multi-stage tourism investment, it willexist risk and possibility of deviation. This study is designed to reduce the risk ofmulti-stage tourism investment option evaluation, making it more scientific and reasonableto evaluate the value of multi-stage tourism investment project.This paper researches on status, option theory, the investment project riskmanagement theory and connotation and basic features of multi-stage tourism investment.On the basis of theoretical research, firstly, this paper analyzes the option characteristics ofevery stage in multi-stage tourism investment, the source affecting the value of multi-stagetourism investment option changes of the risk factors from the market risk, technology risk,environmental risk, management risk, duration risk, expense risk and quality risk, thenconstructs feedback identification chart and identifies the main factors which affect theoption risk. Secondly, this paper establishes a multi-stage tourism investment optionassessment process feedback, then through estimating risk numerical, derives equations ofeach system and a multi-stage tourism investment option risk system dynamics model which can assess the option risk. Finally, this paper proposes measures to avoid risks in themulti-stage tourism investment option evaluation from the policymaker’s managementlevel, full use of information and the choice of option pricing model.