Drug Value Assessment Based On Multi-stage Compound Real Option

The intensification of China's aging has promoted the rapid development of the pharmaceutical industry,and emerging drug technology has been emerging.With the reform of China's medicine entering the deep water area,the merger and acquisition among the pharmaceutical enterprises has become the trend.As the core assets of pharmaceutical enterprises,the accurate evaluation of their value is of great significance to promote the accelerated integration of the pharmaceutical industry.The development of drug technology requires a lot of upfront investment,long clinical trials,and enormous risks.Because of the inherent shortcomings of traditional valuation methods in assessing the value of emerging medical technology,it is of great significance to study the evaluation method of the value formation path of pharmaceutical technology R&D projects.Based on the above background,this paper will evaluate the real option theory as the basis,the use of compound real option evaluation model,combined with a case of A company X development phase of medical technology assessment,quantitative and qualitative analysis,theory and practice of combining research,drug research and development project has obtained due to multi stages,there is a big uncertainty and the existence of management the characteristics of flexibility in the investment process,the evaluation of Gaisikeduo stage compound real option model to the depth of mining project in drug development strategy based on the value of more effective.This paper first analyzes the project of drug development economics principle of value formation,laid the theoretical foundation for the consistency of the paper the real option evaluation model and drug development project formation path value,discusses the new technology research and development process of multi stage and high risk characteristics and real option evaluation method,and the traditional real option model the technical specification;discuss the use of real options framework design of X drug technology R&D projects,compound real option pricing method to choose appropriate evaluation items discussed above conclusion recognition options and the type based on the evaluation process for the specific case of empirical analysis,and then demonstrates that the compound real option evaluation model for the project in drug development the value of the investment decision-making,management flexibility into account,which increases the value of the drug development project evaluation,To help promote the pharmaceutical industry of new technology investment desires;tentatively put forward the evaluation process of the theory of fuzzy join compound real option,the high risk of future to avoid the appraiser subjective forecast processing fuzzy profit and return on investment risk.As a new evaluation concept,the real option evaluation method provides new ideas for the evaluation of high risk pharmaceutical research and development projects.