Empirical Analysis Of Monetary Policy’s Impact On The Real Estate Market

Recently years, in company with instant development of national economy and increasingly bump of people’s living standard, inducting of macroeconomic control policy with lodging institutional reform and enlarging domestic demand, Chinese real estate market has obtained rapid development. Yet, for the moment instance, the phenomena of speculation in Chinese realty market is fairly severe, realty rate of part a gleam of city still spreads irrationally.Regulation of the real estate market must use combined control measures from the supply and demand two aspects. Because the real estate is capital intensive industries, demands funds and long construction period, the project construction and consumer purchase needs financial system providing a large number of credit supports. Because of ample liquidity in the financial system will directly affect the level of real estate development enterprises and ordinary property buyer’s access to credit funds, the cost and difficulty, And the financial system liquidity is closely related to monetary policy.According to the impact of transmission relations, monetary policy is an important means and measures to control the real estate industry.For inhibiting over fasting rose of room rate, Chinese state government has adopted lots of macroeconomic control policy to realty market. But the actuality of Chinese realty market tells us, the regulation and control effect of these round robins macroeconomic control policy is hardly perfect. For advancing the validity of monetary policy, promoting spread health development of realty vocation, this text researches on the relationship of monetary policy and realty market, through constructing a Vector Auto regression between the both, makes an empirical analysis about impact of monetary policy to real estate price and real investment.Through the empirical analysis, from the regulation of the real estate purchase, After a certain reaction time lag, The loan interest rate and money supply are able to make a regulation on commercial property prices, But, Adjustment lending rates can play a regulatory role in larger more than adjust monetary supply. From the perspective of the regulation of the real estate investment, the loan interest rate and money supply are able to make a regulation on real estate investment, and the interest rate variable can also play more produce, But this comparative advantage has gradually decay with time trend.From the factors influencing of monetary policy effect, monetary policy on the real estate supply regulation effect is also affected by the reaction time, the expected interest rate formation mechanism, influencing factors, market subject behavior deviation. According to the factors influencing the effect of monetary policy to collect qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the text gives some suggestions, such as, Improve the interest rate pricing mechanisms, Adhere to regulatory policies multipronged, Perfect real estate financial service system.