Research Upon The Vehicle Alternative Fuel’s Impact On Of The Oil Refining Industry And Relative Countermeasures

Chinese oil refinery has made remarkable achievements during the past few decades of development, but there are still some problems. Disorderly development was an acute problem, for example, some enterprises purchased and expanded local refineries to seize market share, which situation was not conducive to the rational distribution of the oil refining industry, as well as resulting in a surplus refining capacity. At the same time, the demand growth of refined oil was slow down as Chinese economy has entered a new normal. However, air pollution and carbon emission caused by oil fuel consumption lead to high social concerns with the rapid increase of car ownership increase and environmental awareness.In order to remit energy crisis and reduce carbon emission, vehicle alternative fuels develop rapidly with being encouraged and supported by Chinese government. Undoubtedly, when provision of gasoline and diesel reaches a balance between supply and demand, a oversupply situation will emerge if refinery projects keep ignoring the changes of the elements of the environment and increasing to a summit rate of producing and the production totally releases, that will lead to great idleness of assets and poor benefit even with result of shutting-down of factories. Therefore we must face the vehicle substitute fuel for Chinese oil refining industry influence, as well as quantify the impact of the oil refining on the gasoline and diesel output of the car and the amount of oil, adjust the industrial structure in the new situation of oil refining industry, rationally plan the production capacity and promote the development of our country’s oil refining industry to continue to develop healthily, that will have very important significance.Firstly, this paper reveals the theoretical and practical significance by researching background and status. Consequently, the paper analyzes Chinese alternative fuel vehicles and the development of the oil refining industry status and trends. In the following, the paper respectively practically analyzes influences from vehicle alternative fuels to gasoline and diesel production as well as processing quantity and capacity of crude oil to quantize aforesaid influence using of vector auto-regression and impulse response function: In study of vehicle fuel alternative to gasoline and diesel yield and crude oil processing volume effect, the paper builds up vector autoregressive model with a series of test(Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Stability Test and Granger Causality Test), on the basis of the model, and uses impulse response function to study alternative vehicle influence the impact of fuel for gasoline and diesel oil yield and crude oil processing volume, uses variance decomposition to analysis and evaluation of the importance of the impact of different structures,and forecasts alternative fuel replacement for vehicles, gasoline and diesel yield, crude oil processing volume, and measures the impact of alternative fuels for oil refining in China. In study of vehicle fuel alternative on the influence of crude oil processing capacity, the paper proposes rationalization forecast according to the prediction of crude oil processing volume value and reasonable refinery operating rate. Finally, the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions according to the results of empirical analysis from the three aspects of the processing capacity of crude oil, crudes oil processing volume and gasoline and diesel yield for the oil refining industry to cope with the car with alternative fuels the rapid development, in order to adjust the industrial structure for Chinese oil refining industry and provide some reference and reference for reasonable planning capacity.