Based On The Research Of Sustainable Development Of Ecological Footprint Theory In Xinjiang

Along with the rapid development of social economy and continuous progress of science and technology, human material civilization and spiritual civilization have entered a new stage. At the same time, the contradiction between population, resources and environment is more and more obvious, rapid population growth, the depletion of resources, destruction of ecology, pollution of environment becomes more and more serious, the emergence of these problems let the human begin to reconsider their position in the ecological environment, and make great efforts to seek the path of a long-term sustainable development, sustainable development has become the direction which he global scholars actively explore in recent years, ecological footprint as the product of discussing the sustainable development problem methods stands out because of its quantitative advantage in many sustainable development research.In this paper, ecological footprint model is used to calculates and analyses the Xinjiang’s decade ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus and deficit from 2004 to 2013 through the statistics yearbook of Xinjiang from 2005-2014.The result indicates that:1.Nearly a decade of ecological footprint per capita in Xinjiang generally was on the rise and the process was divided into two parts: the first part is the period of steady growth. The second is the period of rapid growth. The ecological footprint per capita of fossil energy is the main influence factor why total ecological footprint per capita showed growth trend, the ecological footprint per capita of fossil energy in the decade accounted for up to 50% in the total ecological footprint per capita.2.In recent ten years, the ecological carrying capacity in Xinjiang showed weak increasing trend and it can be divided into tow parts: the first part is the period of rapid growth; the second part is negative growth period. Ecological carrying capacities per capita on Grassland and construction land are the principle reason of which the total increase year by year. ecological carrying capacity on grassland contribute the maximum, which proportion is more than 50%.ecological carrying capacity per capita continue to increasing shows that it was the important restriction factor of sustainable development in Xinjiang.3. The ecological deficit is the situation of ecology in Xinjiang in recent ten years, the ecological deficit per capita continues to growing. The trend can be roughly divided into two parts: the first part is the period of steady growth, the second part is the period of rapid growth. It indicates that Xinjiang’s ecology has been in serious imbalance state. Fossil energy land, woodland and waters appeared ecological deficit, grassland and construction land showed ecological surplus. Arable land transfers to ecological deficit from ecological surplus. The expansion of the fossil energy’s ecological deficit per capita is the main factor leading to the total ecological deficit per capita enlarging year by year. Ecological surplus and deficit per capita is the index which measure the level of sustainable development in Xinjiang and its quantitative results directly determines the sustainability of the development in Xinjiang.4. This paper take two ways to calculate the ecological footprint of Xinjiang which is the removal and retention of fossil energy. Ecological footprint per capita began to change from the original rapid growth trend to the relatively stable development trend. The ecological status transferred from the ecological deficit to the ecological surplus.5. Xinjiang’s ecological security status become worse by the pressure index of ecological footprint in past ten years. And the state became more and more serious. Ecological footprint diversity obviously showed a downward trend. It indicates that people’s consumption structure is imbalance and the regional stability is in the waning. The capacity of development is increasing. It can be seen that Xinjiang’s capacity of development continues to growing up and has a further elevated space in the future.6. It is concluded that ecological footprint per capita showed a rising trend in Xinjiang in the next seven years predicted by Grey Prediction GM(1,1) model and the ecological carrying capacity per capita is in declining trend. It results in ecological deficit per capita is in the constantly expanding. After removing fossil energy factor, the prediction of ecological footprint per capita of Xinjiang is slightly decreased in the next seven years. the ecological status will be ecological surplus. Because the decline speed of ecological carrying capacity is quicker than the decline speed of ecological footprint per capita, the ecological surplus continues to decrease.In order to ensure the sustainable development in Xinjiang in further way and lead the economy of Xinjiang to a good and fast developing road, strengthening the protection of farmland, grassland and woodland in the quantity and quality, increasing the investment in science and technology and improving the biological yield must have to be done to change the current situation.